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New PA Polls Show Harris, Trump in Heat, Widening Gender, Education Gaps
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New PA Polls Show Harris, Trump in Heat, Widening Gender, Education Gaps

Two polls of Pennsylvania voters released Wednesday show the race between them Kamala Harris and Donald Trump effectively tied, the largest sample poll showing a growing political gender divide, even as voters view Trump as less personally appealing.

The polls released Wednesday are a 500-person survey of likely voters by Susquehanna Polling & Research with a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points and a poll of 2,186 voters by Quinnipiac University with a margin of 2.1 points .

The Susquehanna poll shows Harris — the current vice president and Democratic presidential nominee — up by a fraction of a percentage point over former President Trump.

Susquehanna’s query was one-to-one and did not mention third-party candidates. Quinnipiac’s equivalent question shows Trump leading Harris by about two points.

In a question that included third-party options, Quinnipiac shows Trump leading Harris by a single point, with 47 percent of those polled choosing Trump to Harris’ 46 percent, with the remainder third parties or voters who refused to make a choice.

That’s Trump’s best performance in recent Quinnipiac polls, which last showed Harris by about three points on the same question.

Both polls also continue the Democratic senator’s trend. Bob Casey crossing the top of the ticket, with Casey leading the Republican challenger Dave McCormick with three points in both surveys.

Both polls are weighted to represent Pennsylvania’s partisan affiliations and split demographics, according to polling firms, but show a notable divergence in the demographic breakdown.

In a close race, Susquehanna found Harris leading Trump by 6.5 points among 18-29 voters and 10 points among 30-44 voters . The same Quinnipiac question gave Harris a much stronger edge among younger people. voters – although the poll used different age categories – the vice president was up 16 points among 18- to 34-year-olds.

Both polls show Trump’s advantage is concentrated among Gen X voters, a trend that has been observed in many recent political dates.

Quinnipiac has Trump with a 6-point lead among Pennsylvania voters 35-49 and a 12-point lead among 50-64. Susquehanna shows Trump trailing Harris by a single point in the 45-54 age bracket, but by a margin. 16-point lead among 55- to 64-year-olds.

Harris’ lead is returning among voters 65 and older in both polls, though Susquehanna polls show Trump is favored among voters 75 and older.

Quinnipiac’s researchers also noted the largest gender gap in any of their recent surveys. With third-party options included, 57 percent of Pennsylvania men chose Trump and just 37 percent chose Harris. Among women, those numbers were reversed, with 55% choosing Harris and 39% Trump.

Race also continues to be a factor, with Harris favored among 75 percent of black voters in Pennsylvania in the Quinnipiac poll, a massive 57-point deficit with 15 percent of Trump’s black electorate. Trump holds an 11-point lead among white voters in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

These figures also show a divide by education superseding race, another phenomenon that reflect national surveys. White voters in Pennsylvania with a four-year college degree are with Harris by a 16-point margin, according to Quinnipiac; those without favor Trump by 29 points.

Quinnipiac’s questions about candidates’ personal traits and issue handling continue to show strong partisan splits, with voters overwhelmingly saying their party’s candidate is the better person with a better position on any given issue.

However, the latest Quinnipiac poll shows two places where partisan loyalty dips below 80 percent. More Pennsylvania voters — 54 percent — say Trump is not honest, compared to 49 percent who disagree that Harris is honest. Notably, only 77 percent of Republicans believe Trump is being honest.

While Trump leads Harris by 10 and 12 points on his handling of the economy and immigration, respectively, Harris has a massive lead on abortion. Only 38 percent of voters say Trump would do a better job on the issue, and only 74 percent of Republicans say the former president would be preferable on abortion.