Kamala Harris could win in a landslide if the polls underestimate her Democrats so did they in 2022, accordingly CNN poll analyst Harry Enten.

According to Enten, on average, polls underestimated Democrats by 4 points in the midterm elections, which saw Democrats win 51 seats in Senate while the republicans took the House.

Enten’s analysis showed that if the polls underestimate Democrats again this year, Harris could win 319 electoral votes to Trump’s 219, meaning he would win all the crucial battleground states and win the presidency.

Enten also noted that polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016, when he carried 30 states, and in 2020, when he carried 25 states. According to the analysis, the RepublicanThe top polls averaged 8 points better than 2020 in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, this year, with Trump trailing Harris by 1 point, his best polls show him 3 points above his polling average in the three Great Lakes states. But according to Enten, polls are unlikely to underestimate Trump again this year because no party has been underestimated in swing state polls for three consecutive presidential election cycles dating back to at least 1972.

In fact, according to Enten, the polls for Trump in swing states may be “too good” and may actually be underestimating Harris.

“Here’s the bottom line,” he said. “I think a lot of people count in that Donald Trump will actually be underestimated by the polls, but when I look at the evidence, I think there are people who underestimate the idea that maybe Kamala Harris will be underestimated by the polls by at least a week.”

Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

Polls currently suggest that Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College. For example, survey Nate SilverHis forecast shows Harris 0.9 points ahead with a 71 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, due to Trump’s position in swing states, his forecast shows Harris has a 44 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to her opponent’s 55 percent chance.

FiveThirtyEight, meanwhile, shows Harris ahead by 1.4 points nationally, but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 48 percent chance.

Both aggregators show Trump ahead in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Harris is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows Harris leading by 0.1 points in Nevada, while Silver’s forecast shows the two candidates tied.

In 2020, polls showed president Joe Biden with a strong lead over then-President Trump. Right before the election, Biden led by 8.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average and by 7.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average. However, he won the popular vote by less than 4.5 points — just enough for an Electoral College victory.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research has labeled the 2020 poll rate the highest in 40 years, with polls overestimating Biden’s lead in recent weeks.

Similarly, in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 71 percent chance of winning, but ultimately lost the Electoral College despite winning the popular vote.

Scott Keeter, senior fellow at the Pew Research Center, said Newsweek this week that the 2020 and 2016 polls were inaccurate because Trump supporters are abandoning the polls due to distrust of institutions such as the media and polling organizations.

“Trump supporters may have less trust in the institutions that sponsor these polls. If they choose not to participate because of that distrust, their support is not being accurately captured,” Keeter said.

However, while the polls have tended to underestimate Trump’s support, pollsters have adapted their methods in response to past inaccuracies, increasingly using online and text polls.

Voting methods have changed substantially since 2016, when many polls still relied on landlines, despite less than half of US households having them. By 2022, 61% of US polling organizations that conducted national surveys in 2016 will have switched to updated methods.

Experts also believe the polls will be more accurate this year because the adjustments now better account for likely Trump supporters who were previously underrepresented.

“Many pollsters today are using past voting (history) to correct for undercounting Trump,” said Cliff Young, president of Ipsos polling. said before Newsweek.