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    • Michigan presidential poll shows stark divide between male and female voters
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    Michigan presidential poll shows stark divide between male and female voters

    Online Niel Posted on

    Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris maintains her slim lead in Michigan, but her race for the White House against former Republican President Donald Trump remains a tie with eight days to go, according to a new poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV. .

    The poll of 600 likely Michigan voters, contacted by telephone between Oct. 22-24, found Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points, 46.7%-43.7%, with 7.3% of respondents saying plan to vote for a third-party candidate. . Another 2.1% said they were undecided.

    Harris’ lead was slightly larger than the 2.6 percentage point lead had over Trump in a similar poll earlier in the month and showed a shift in her favor since an August poll had her losing Trump by 1.2 points. However, her lead was still within the margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, indicating that the Republican candidate has a path to claim Michigan’s 15 electoral votes.

    Michigan elections are driven by a sharp divide between male voters and female voters.

    “2024 now represents the most gendered election of our lifetime, with deep and stark differences between men and women,” said Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll for The News and WDIV-TV.

    Trump led among male voters by 21 percentage points, 55%-34%. Harris won among female voters by 24 points, 58%-34%, according to the poll.

    “Honestly, the upside for her is that there are simply more women voters,” Czuba said.

    Michigan is expected to be one of seven battleground states to decide whether Harris or Trump is the next president.

    Trump spoke at a rally in Oakland County Saturdaytelling the crowd at the Suburban Collection Showplace that he was driving in Michigan and if Michigan wins, “we win the whole deal.” Harris made his own campaign go through Michigan on monday after a rally Saturday in Kalamazoo with former First Lady Michelle Obama.

    Key numbers

    The majority of participants in the new survey, 83%, were contacted by mobile phone, and 17% were contacted by landline.

    Their answers pointed to trends that have defined the 2024 campaign: Many voters are unhappy with the direction of the country under Democratic President Joe Biden, but there is still opposition to Trump as an alternative.

    About 66 percent of likely voters in Michigan said the nation was on the wrong track, while 25 percent — one in four — said it was on the right track. Jobs and the economy continued to be the top issue in the race, with 25 percent naming it when asked what was the “most important issue that will influence” how they will vote.

    Doug Benchley, 59, of Grand Blanc took the poll and is backing Trump this fall, saying the economy has performed better, with lower interest rates and gas prices, in the four years of Trump in the White House than it is now.

    Benchley said he voted for Trump in the last two presidential elections and attended the protest in Washington, DC on January 6, 2021. the day Congress was scheduled to certify Biden’s victory. Benchley said he did not enter the U.S. Capitol that day because a riot ensued there.

    “To be honest, I just don’t like people who are career politicians,” Benchley said. “From my point of view, you don’t know who’s really running them.”

    Asked who would do a better job managing the economy, 50 percent of likely Michigan voters chose Trump in the poll, while 45 percent chose Harris. But there were still significant warning signs for Republicans in the data.

    The issue that was identified as the most important behind jobs and the economy was abortion at 13%. And a majority of those polled, 51 percent, said they had an unfavorable view of Trump, with 43 percent saying they had a favorable opinion.

    Harris had a stronger favorable score at 45 percent, while 48 percent said they had an unfavorable view of her.

    Dawn Revyn, 42, of Macomb Township plans to vote for Harris on Election Day and said women’s rights are the top issue for her. She noted that in 2022, the judges, nominated by Trump, overturned Roe v. Wade, a Supreme Court decision that previously protected access to abortion at the national level.

    “Honestly, I think he doesn’t have our best interests at heart,” Revyn said of female voters’ opposition to Trump.

    “It didn’t work the first time,” she said of Trump’s performance during his first term. “I don’t know why they think it would work again.”

    Revyn said she believes Trump poses a risk to people’s safety, freedom and rights.

    Voters worried about military use

    During an interview earlier this month with Fox NewsTrump was asked about the possibility of “outside agitators” disrupting Election Day.

    “I think the biggest problem is the enemy within” Trump replied. He added later: “We have some very bad people. We have some sick, crazy people on the radical left. … And it should be very easily dealt with, if necessary, by the National Guard, or if it’s really necessary, by the military, because I can’t let that happen.”

    Asked in the poll whether they supported or opposed the idea of ​​deploying the U.S. military against citizens with whom the president disagrees, 74 percent of likely Michigan voters said they opposed the possibility.

    As for whether Trump’s remarks were “just campaign statements that will never happen” or whether he would follow through on the comments, 62 percent of respondents, a majority, said they believed Trump would follow through.

    Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said the Republican nominee would “of course not” he uses the military to go after people who oppose him. The question it was “absurd.”Vance said.

    Compared to 2020

    In Michigan’s last two presidential elections — 2016 and 2020 — Trump has generally outperformed public opinion polls. It’s unclear if that pattern will continue this fall.

    The final poll from The News and WDIV in late October 2020, ahead of the November 2020 election, had Biden as the winner by 7.7 percentage points, 49.3 percent to 41.6 percent, in Michigan. Biden ultimately won that race by 2.8 points, 50.6%-47.8% or 154,188 votes.

    However, there are key differences between the circumstances in 2020 and 2024.

    About 7% of survey participants at the end of October 2020 were still undecided. This time, 2% were undecided, seemingly indicating that there is potentially less volatility between the poll and the actual results.

    Many polling firms, including the Glengariff Group, have also changed how they model who will be in the Michigan electorate.

    For example, in the new poll, 42 percent of participants said they tend to vote Democratic, 41 percent said they tend to vote Republican, and 17 percent said they are independent.

    Four years ago, in the final poll, 44 percent said they tended to vote Democratic, 37 percent said they tended to vote Republican and 17 percent were independent.

    Divergent predictions

    Still, John Yob, a longtime Republican political consultant who has often worked in Michigan, said during a podcast interview published Monday that the polls could see Trump lose some of his support in the state.

    Some Republicans don’t respond to opinion polls as eagerly as some Democrats, Yob on argued Michigan Information and Research Service Monday Podcast.

    “There are probably some quiet Trump voters, maybe a relatively sizable percentage, 2, 3, 4 points, who are voting for President Trump, but they don’t necessarily admit it when you ask them the poll test,” Yob said.

    On the podcast, Yob predicted that Trump is headed for a 2-3 percentage point win in Michigan.

    In 2016, Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan in a presidential contest since 1988, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes, or 0.2 percentage points. 47.5%-47.3%.

    But Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond, CEO of Lansing-based consulting firm Grassroots Midwest, predicted a Harris win in Michigan on Monday.

    State Republicans haven’t reached out to people to get them to vote the right way, said Hemond, who has worked for Democrats in the state Legislature.

    The GOP field game in Michigan was a “disaster,” he said.

    “It’s a very tightly divided state and country,” Hemond said. “One team is getting their voters out right now and one team isn’t.

    Among participants in the new poll who said they planned to vote by absentee ballot, 63 percent said they were voting for Harris and 33 percent said they were voting for Trump. As of Monday, about 1.5 million absentee ballots had already been returned in Michigan, while another 263,000 votes had been cast at in-person early voting centers. according to the secretary of state’s office.

    According to the poll, Trump had smaller leads among those who planned to vote in person early and those who planned to vote on Election Day.

    About 54 percent of voters surveyed said they plan to vote on Nov. 5. Among those voters, Trump had a 7-point lead over Harris.

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