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Allan Lichtman says Harris will win the 2024 election. Here’s why
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Allan Lichtman says Harris will win the 2024 election. Here’s why

Allan Lichtman, historian and professor at American University, known for accurately predicting presidential elections, is standing by his call that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election.

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Litchman has received a lot of backlash since making his prediction in September, but he said FOX 5 DC Tom Fitzgerald received even more pushback for his 2016 prediction that former President Donald Trump would win.

Still, Lichtman says the vitriol his detractors are bringing to this election cycle is different than last.

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“I’m used to rejection, I’ve been getting it for 42 years,” Lichtman said. “But I have to tell you, I’ve never experienced the kind of hate that has been heaped on me this time.”

Lichtman says he blames it on Trump and extremist rhetoric.

“I had the most vulgar, vile, violent communication threat on me. My family’s safety has been compromised. We had to notify the police, secure our property, and I absolutely attribute that to the toxic politics of Donald Trump,” Lichtman said. “Before Donald Trump, we never saw anything like this.”

Despite the threats, Lichtman said Sunday he would not change his prediction, even as polls show the two candidates locked in a dead heat nationally and in several swing states.

“I don’t change my prediction on the fly in response to polls or conventional wisdom. If I did that, I’d be useless as a forecaster. I might as well go with the polls,” he said.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent a new survey from TIPP Perspectives released on Monday. But in two polls published by CBS/YouGov and ABC News, Harris has a slight lead over Trump. However, Trump has an edge over Harris in several recent ones state polls vary.

“I stood by my prediction in 2016 when the pollsters were virtually unanimous against it,” Lichtman said.

The presidential predictor explained why he relies on “13 Keys to the White House” instead of conventional polls.

“My system is based on history, and yes, history might change, but you won’t know it until afterward,” Lichtman said.

Four of the keys are based on a candidate’s politics, seven are based on performance, and two are based on personality.

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“The way it works is that six of my 13 keys have to go against the party in the White House and only four go against them — tenure based on US House elections, tenure, foreign policy failure due to the Middle East disaster, and current mandate. charisma,” he continued.

Just over a week after the election, Lichtman says barring a “catastrophic” incident, he’s standing by his call and continues to believe Harris will take the White House.

When do polls close on election day?

The polls are open from 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m Election dayTuesday, November 5.