Anyone who lived through the 2020 election probably doesn’t want to hear this, but a panel of experts said last Thursday that it’s likely we won’t know who our next president will be on November 5.

The results announced on election night are far from official. These have not come for weeks.

Rather, they are projections made by media organizations once they are confident that the trends they see will hold. In a close election, that can take some time.

For four agonizing days after the last presidential election, the networks hesitated to project the result because it was so close. With Republicans more likely to vote in person during the pandemic, the first ballots counted tended to favor then-President Donald Trump, who declared victory while repeating false claims of fraud at 2:30 the morning after election day.

Trump continued the lies until January 6, 2020, when a crowd he convened in Washington, DC, attacked the Capitol as Congress certifies Joe Biden’s victory. Regardless of the damage he does to public faith in our democracy, the former president and many of his followers continue to repeat lies about the outcome of the last election.

We hope to avoid violence this time, but are unlikely to avoid initial uncertainty, a panel convened by the National Election Crisis Task Force said Thursday.

“We need to make sure the public is aware that we may not have results for one race, for multiple races in a particular state on election night, or even Wednesday, or maybe even Thursday,” said Tammy Patrick of Electoral Center. a national group representing election officials. “Everything remains to be seen.”

Celina Stewart, CEO of the League of Women Voters, was even more specific.

“We probably won’t know the winner of the election on election night,” she said. “And we should be skeptical of candidates who claim victory before they have a clear picture.”

Part of the reason is that certain swing states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin do not allow early voting to be processed before Election Day. Michigan also did not allow the practice in 2020, but it does now.

Because so many Democrats voted early in those states, it created a “red mirage” and then a “blue shift” as votes for Biden exceeded those for Trump in battleground states as early votes were counted, they said. Trump continues to exploit the phenomenon as part of his election lies.

Stewart warned the public not to pass on dubious information until a clear winner can be projected.

“Being patient and calm and being careful not to share information that is false is really important,” she said. “I think we have an increased responsibility in 2024 based on things that have happened recently.”

A big concern is that uncertainty and misinformation about the outcome of the election will exacerbate political violence this is already happening. Stewart asked the media to raise awareness that clear predictions of the winner will likely not be known on November 5.

“I think there’s a clearer role for the media in this round to help keep calm, not demanding results too early, but waiting until there’s a better picture,” she said.

Patrick, from the Election Centre, said everyone should take a deep breath.

“Everyone wants results as quickly as possible,” she said.