The National Hurricane Center has raised the odds of potential tropical development in the Caribbean Sea.

On Saturday, the National Hurricane Center designated an area of ​​concern in the southwestern Caribbean Sea with a 20 percent chance of development over the next seven days. On Sunday, the NHC increased those chances to 40 percent.

The NHC said a low pressure system is likely to develop over the Caribbean Sea this week and a tropical depression could form later this week or next weekend, possibly before Halloween.

If a tropical storm or hurricane develops, the next name on the list is Patty.

Impact in Florida? Not

No, not at this time, according to the FOX 35 Storm Team.

Due to a lower jet stream in the fall, it often pushes these systems south of Florida and out of the Atlantic Ocean.

There are three possible scenarios where this system will eventually develop:

• Scenario 1 – a strong ridge of high pressure sets in over the southeast and steers any tropical development westward, following the path of Tropical Storm Nadine
• Scenario 2 – The jet stream sinks but does not push into the Atlantic, causing the storms to approach the east coast with dominant high pressure over the mid-Atlantic.
• Scenario 3 – The jet stream descends and pushes off the east coast, allowing any tropical development to follow along the jet stream, and the storms will push into the central Atlantic.

What fuels the potential for tropical development?

According to the FOX 35 Storm Team, low wind shear and warmer ocean temperatures act as fuel for developing tropical storm or hurricane potential.

When does hurricane season end?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, which means there is one month left in the 2024 season.

Do hurricanes form in November? Rare, but possible

In short: Yes, hurricanes can form in November – and they have – but the focus area is away from the Gulf of Mexico and is mainly in the Caribbean Sea.

However, hurricanes formed and made landfall in Florida. In fact, four hurricanes have made landfall in Florida since records were kept, according to The NOAA Historic Hurricane Tracks widget.

These were:

• Hurricane Nicole (2022)
• Hurricane ETA (2020)
• Hurricane Kate (1985)
• The unnamed hurricane of 1935

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