• Trump has ventured into deep blue territory to boost his candidacy among black and Latino voters.
• Throughout his campaign, he sought to appeal to minority voters by focusing on the economy.
• Trump has made gains among young minority men, but it’s unclear how much that will affect the race.

Throughout the 2024 presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump has spent time strengthening GOP voters in rural and exurban areas, where his support remains strongest.

He also spent a significant amount of time holding rallies in Democratic cities such as Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia.

And on Sunday, he’s set to headline a rally at Madison Square Garden, bringing his conservative campaign to Manhattan, where Democrats dominate the GOP in races up and down.

Trump sees the value in this strategy as it is probed stronger with minority voters in the past year compared to 2020. And with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris blocked in the presidential race, every vote will count.

The economic argument

According to polls, most voters are concerned about the state of the economy, which it is Trump’s strongest problem. He sought to use the issue to erode Harris’ support among the groups he would need to win the presidency.

That includes black voters, who for decades have overwhelmingly supported Democratic politicians, and Latino voters, who have become less Democratic overall in recent years. Of both groups, there was a notable migration among young male voters toward Trump.

A recent one GenForward survey showed that 26 percent of young blacks supported Trump, compared to 58 percent who supported Harris. Among young Latinos, 44% of respondents supported Trump and 37% supported Harris. (Overall, black men in 2020 voted for Biden by 79% to 19%, and Latino men supported Biden that year by 59% to 36%, exit polls were found.)

Trump has long tied issues like immigration to the economy, and he’s stepped up that argument this year. During a debate in June with President Joe Biden, Trump said that migrants were taking “black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” The former president also hit out at Biden and Harris on inflation, arguing that the economic picture under his administration was much better for minorities.

Black unemployment under both Biden and Trump reached lows not seen for decades. And the former president is using the issue as a catalyst that could bring more minorities into the GOP ranks.

Trump has leaned into his non-traditional political persona as he tries to chip away at black, Latino and Asian support from Democrats. In May, he generated the kind of buzz that wouldn’t have been heard for almost any other Republican because held a rally in the Bronx. And despite Almost certain probability of Harris to win New York, the prospect of having a rally at Madison Square Garden in a blue city just days before the election only adds to Trump’s narrative.

State voting changes

In swing states like Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Republicans no longer dominate suburban communities as they did in the 1980s, 1990s and most of the 2000s.

In 2020, Biden performed strongly in the inner-ring suburbs outside of Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia, respectively, while also winning in landslides in current city centers. Such margins allowed Biden to overcome Trump’s advantage in most rural counties in each state.

These populous metropolitan areas contain a significant portion of the votes needed to win nationally and with Republicans continuing to falter with suburban voters in the Trump era, the former president will have to cast his votes elsewhere.

In 2020, Biden won 66% of urban voterscompared to Trump’s 33% support, according to the Pew Research Center. Among suburban voters, Biden had a 54 percent to 43 percent lead over Trump.

Trump’s focus on urban rallies gives the GOP additional visibility in areas where they generally haven’t even bothered to show up.

However, it also reflects potential long-term changes in voting patterns that could occur in the 2024 election. If Trump increases his support among minority men, then Republicans will welcome his strategy. That may not be enough to defeat Harris, however, as the presidential race remains as close as ever.