Vice-President Kamala Harris” focus on abortion rights in her campaign for the White House could help her win, according to experts and polls conducted on behalf of Newsweek.

More than half of Americans (53 percent) say they lean toward the Democratic position on abortion, compared to 36 percent who lean toward Republican position, according to the survey carried out in October.

While the overall number of people who say they lean toward the Democratic position has remained steady since last July, there has been a larger shift in those who say they “lean strongly” toward the Democratic position.

About 33 percent of Americans now say they “lean strongly” toward the Democratic position, up from 28 percent last July. The numbers saying they “lean strongly” toward the Republican position saw a slight change, from 14% in July 2023 to 16% in October.

This article is part of NewsweekIts follow-up poll, where Americans were asked questions about topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.

This data is based on surveys conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. In total, 19 polls were conducted, asking a cumulative 34,800 eligible voters about key issues in the 2024 election.

The increase in those leaning toward the Democratic position on abortion was largely due to women — from 51 percent just before Harris entered the race in July 2024 to 55 percent in October. These figures are up from 48% in July 2023.

About 32 percent of women said they were leaning toward the Republican position on abortion in October 2024 — a level that has been fairly consistent since Harris entered the race.

In October 2024, a majority of men (52 percent) say they lean toward the Democratic position, while the number who “lean strongly” toward it increased from 26 percent in July 2023 to 32 percent in October 2023.

The number of men who lean Republican rose from 33 percent in July 2023 to 40 percent in October, while those who lean strongly Republican only changed two points, from 14 percent in July 2023 to 18 percent in October.

Overall, the results suggest that Harris’ campaign strategy of centering abortion rights could prove to be a winning one in a tight race against the former president. Donald Trumpwhere slim margins in battleground states could change the outcome.

Harris has repeatedly attacked Trump for USA supreme courthis decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization which overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending the nation’s right to abortion. She warned that a second Trump term would further erode reproductive rights and vowed to sign a bill restoring national abortion rights if she wins the presidency.

Americans overwhelmingly oppose abortion bans that have since gone into effect in Republican-led states. Bans with limited exceptions have gone into effect in 13 states, while four other states ban abortion after just six weeks of pregnancy — before many women even know they’re pregnant.

Trump took credit for appointing the judges who overturned roebut sought to take a more cautious stance on abortion as it became a major election vulnerability for republicans. He has repeatedly said abortion should be left up to the states, and more recently said he would veto a national abortion ban in a second term after previously refusing to do so.

Harris’s pro-abortion messaging “has resonated with pro-opinion Americans who have started to pay more attention to the campaign in the last few months,” said Paul Goren, a political science professor at the University of Minnesota. Newsweek.

“When these voters learn of Harris’ support for abortion rights, they naturally conclude that Democratic PartyHis position is closer to their own position. “Since most Americans favor abortion rights in most or all situations, it makes sense that the share of people who say they ‘lean strongly’ toward the Democratic position would increase.”

The increase in those who now lean heavily toward the Democratic position on abortion “reflects a deepening of political polarization that we’ve seen in recent years,” according to Craig Agranoff, a professor of political marketing at Florida Atlantic University.

Americans “become more entrenched in their positions” since Dobbs’ decision, he said Newsweek. “Those who align with the Democratic view, often advocating for broader access to abortion, seem to feel a stronger need to assert their position as states adopt more restrictive measures. This weak growth suggests that the issue is becoming more than just one of political preference. but one of identity for many voters”.

Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University, said the abortion issue could decide the election “just because it’s so close.”

2022 political watchers “grossly underestimated the importance of abortion rights in getting voters to the polls, especially younger women, and the issue helped Democrats the key win Senate races,” she said Newsweek.

“The same dynamic is likely to play out now in 2024, when the importance of abortion rights is understated in polls, meaning respondents who support abortion rights may not feel comfortable saying so in response to the survey on mobile phone or landline, but they will vote for this. mode.”

Harris “chose a strategy of being very clear about her support for abortion rights and it’s central to her platform; it remains to be seen whether there will be another silent voter majority on this issue in 2024, but if 2022 is any indication, it may be enough to carry her to victory,” she said.

Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said the trends reflect continuity rather than change on the issue.

“This is not too surprising, given that it is an issue that most voters have strong opinions about and have considered carefully, most likely for years. People have held strong beliefs about abortion for a long time he said. Newsweek.

“That said, there are indications that pro-abortion-rights voters are moving closer to the Democratic Party’s position on the issue … also perhaps not surprising, given that the Dobbs decision made Americans to lose reproductive rights throughout the country. Psychologists have determined that people react quite strongly to perceived losses of this type, and the prospect of further losses, more than the prospect of gains.”

About 38 percent of voters said abortion was one of the issues that would affect their vote in the November election in the most recent poll from October 2024. Abortion ranked highest for Harris voters, with 58 percent saying it was among the problems most likely to determine. vote next month. The economy ranked second for them, with 55% saying the issue will determine how they vote.

Meanwhile, Trump voters cited the economy and immigration as their biggest issues, with just 20 percent saying abortion would affect their vote in November.

“The Harris campaign has to go hard on the abortion issue because the public leans heavily in the pro-choice direction and many people are passionately committed to securing abortion rights,” Goren said.

“This election may come down to how a few thousand people in two or three battleground states vote. The Harris campaign must use this issue to motivate swing voters in these states to support the vice president on Election Day. It could be the difference between winning and losing the presidency.”

Read more in our follow-up survey series:

Abortion trumps immigration in voters’ minds
Kamala Harris voters want a tough stance on immigration
The US elections will probably decide the fate of Ukraine. Here’s what voters think
Bad news for Kamala Harris—Most say the economy is headed in the wrong direction
Social Security is about to reach the next generation. Receivers are worried
Boomers, Gen Z increasingly conflicted with Israel