To win the presidency, a candidate must receive 270 electoral votes. However, with polls showing Harris and Trump within the margin of error of each other in several key battleground states, the election is likely to lead to “contingent elections,” where no one gets 270 votes.

2024 ELECTION LIVE UPDATES: THE LATEST ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE

If the election resulted in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, the presidential election would be in the hands of Congress. With the House voting based on state delegations and the Senate voting as individual senators, the outcome of the 2024 down-ballot races could have monumental effects.

The new Congress, sworn in on January 6, 2025, could decide whether Trump returns to the White House or Harris becomes the first female president in US history.

What happens if there is a tie in the electoral vote?

A candidate must obtain a majority of the 538 electoral votes to win the presidency. If no candidate receives 270 votes, the presidential election goes to the House and the vice presidential race goes to the Senate.

Under House rules, the president will be elected when he receives a majority vote of 26 states, which are determined by the state delegation. In September 2023, Republicans hold a edge 26-22 in the House delegations, with two states — Minnesota and North Carolina.

However, the president would be chosen by the newly elected Congress on November 5. If delegations change or some become tied, that could put the House in a deadlock, according to Matthew Lebo, a Western University political science professor who specializes in Congress. and the presidential election.

THE CASE RACES TO WATCH IN THE 2024 ELECTION

There could be a scenario where Democrats control the House, but Republicans hold a majority of delegations. That could mean a Democratic-majority House could elect a GOP chairman.

“It would be a complete mess,” Lebo said of the possibility of a tie. “And you know, in 2020, there was a clear winner and that was a complete mess. So when – if we were to get to 269 to 269, then it would be incredibly controversial and possibly violent.”

On the Senate side, each senator would vote, as opposed to the House’s collective vote in delegations. So if the Democrats flip the House and the Republicans take the Senate, Congress — though highly unlikely — could elect a Kamala Harris president and a JD Vance vice president.

Another aspect of contingent choices is whether Washington, DCand the five American territories, such as the Virgin Islands, could vote in Parliament.

Republican strategist Dennis Lennox said there was nothing explicitly stated in the Constitution to prohibit territories from voting, but contingent elections would be a “political exercise”.

“It’s kind of an indictment,” Lennox said of the proceeding. “That would be the closest analogy – a political process that is ultimately sausage-making. And watching sausages being made is not pleasant.”

Contingent elections unlikely, but could sow “chaos” in the US

Most strategists agree that the outcome of a tie between Harris and Trump is unlikely. Lebo said forecasters predict a less than 1 percent chance of a snap election in 2024.

Every election cycle, people sort states into different scenarios to determine whether a 269-269 split is possible, Lebo said. Despite the fact that the 2024 election was significantly more partisan and politically charged than recent cycles, “it doesn’t necessarily mean that the odds of a tie are higher this year than in previous years.”

However, Lennox said if there was an election to make history, this would be it.

KEY DATES FOR THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION

“Ironically, that might be appropriate given how many times Trump has made history,” Lennox said, noting the assassination attempts or impeachment of the House twice. “There seems to be something about Trump that breaks records.”

Lebo predicts Harris could reach 270 with wins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, even if he loses the other four swing states — North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — and Nebraska’s second congressional district, given the fact that the rules for the allocation of state electoral votes. The 2nd District electoral vote went to Democrats despite a Republican winning the statewide popular vote, which in a close race like this could make or break a campaign.

But what does the 269-269 split mean for delegations whose majorities don’t match the party of their state’s electoral winner?

“What does a Republican member of Congress do if Kamala Harris wins her state?” Lennox said. “Does a Republican vote for the person who lost their state’s popular vote?”

“Would someone elected by contingent election be considered a legitimate president in the United States? We certainly now have people saying that a president wins Electoral Collegethat does not win the popular vote, is illegitimate. What would the same people say in this situation?”

A possible role for territories?

Lennox said that because of this, it’s not inconceivable that a majority GOP delegation of 28 states, for example, in the new Congress could find itself below the 26-state threshold.

That’s when the territories could come into play, he said, because three of the five territories have Republican members Congress. They could make up votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Michigan if their majority GOP delegations decide to vote the will of their state and not their party.

Congress would likely have to pass rules on redistricting or the role of districts in voting, Lennox predicted, which could further affect the outcome.

“It would really come down to, how far are you willing to go? We certainly saw what happened when it came to voter certification (in 2020), how far some members of Congress were willing to go,” Lennox said. “I would be shocked if the same people weren’t willing to do that or more this time if they went to a contingent election.”

Other strategists argue that while “anything is possible” in terms of the outcome of a tie, Trump or Harris should not change their efforts on the battlefield. Neither candidate should focus on getting out the vote for the swing district in Nebraska, for example, said GOP strategist Christian Ferry. The GOP pushed a campaign to get the Nebraska state legislature to change the rules to be a winner-take-all system, but was unsuccessful.

“To focus your attention on the same electoral vote to avoid a scenario that is very unusual in our history would not make sense to me at the expense of spending time in Pennsylvania, where you can get 19 electoral votes, or Georgia,” said Ferry, who was John McCain’s deputy campaign manager in 2008.

Minnesota GOP strategist Amy Koch said the contingent election would draw the presidential race on a “state by state, district by district and court challenge by court challenge” basis.

“Almost a nightmare scenario,” Koch said.

“It would be dysfunctional. There would be fights in Congress. There would be—the Lame Duck Congress would have a say from the outside, but you would have a split there. And so, I think, for everyone’s sake, that must not happen, right? We need a clear winner,” Koch added.

Also, contingent elections could generate division within the population and abroad, Lennox warned. If Harris won the popular vote but the House elected Trump as president because of a 269-269 split or vice versa, that would be “perfectly legal” but could cause problems for the population, the strategist said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

“You can’t say it doesn’t have a basis in the Constitution, but could the country survive something like that? If you thought the tumult on January 6 was bad, how about this time?” Lennox said.

“What would it look like to our enemies and to our allies? Yes, it’s completely constitutional,” Lennox added. “And yes, it has happened before. There is a precedent for this. It’s not unheard of. But what would people outside the United States think who don’t know this?”