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Experts predict Supreme Court likely to stay out of 2024 presidential election
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Experts predict Supreme Court likely to stay out of 2024 presidential election

Electoral lawyers and experts say the US Supreme Court is unlikely to consider an election-related case after Nov. 5, let alone cast the deciding vote.

“It has to be super, super close,” Holtzman Vogel partner Jason Torchinsky told Fox News Digital. “If you look at the history of post-election litigation, the only places where it’s been successful in determining the outcome are really where the vote is very close.”

“If there is a genuine issue, the Court will consider it. If it’s something that the Court doesn’t think deserves a higher-level view, then they’ll state briefly,” Torchinsky said.

Congress has been amended The Electoral Number Reform Act of 2022 (ECRA) which accelerates potential litigation and specifies that the role of the Vice President during the joint session is “ministerial in nature.”

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Republicans and Democrats alike have filed a number of election-related lawsuits ahead of Nov. 5.

Republicans and Democrats alike have filed a number of election-related lawsuits ahead of Nov. 5. (Allison Joyce)

The statute says “any action brought by an aggrieved candidate for president or vice president” will be heard by a district court with a panel of three judges. It is then “the duty of the court to advance the case and to hasten the resolution of the action to the greatest extent possible.”

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The parties are then permitted to seek direct review of the decision by US Supreme Court on an accelerated basis.

“It really creates a new route to federal court for a limited set of issues raised under the Voter Number Act,” said Greg Teufle, founder of OGC Law. “There are, however, very limited issues that can be raised under that law. So it’s not a broad expansion or an increase in the likelihood of having litigation, either in the federal courts or in litigation that goes to the U.S. Supreme Court under the Election Reform Act.”

Teufle noted that for an election case to be taken up by the Court, “there should be significant and provable allegations of fraud or other serious violations of the law in the way elections are conducted or votes are processed.”

Supreme Court Building

Lawyers and election experts say the US Supreme Court is highly unlikely to consider an election-related case after Nov. 5, let alone cast the deciding vote. (Robert Alexander/Getty Images)

republicans and democrats they have also filed a number of lawsuits related to elections before Nov. 5, including a recent case in Georgia that found county election officials must certify results by the legal deadline despite suspected fraud or mistakes.

Joseph Burns, a partner at Holtzman Vogel, noted this Republicans can prove it success in electoral disputes based on the composition of the Court.

“In terms of the composition of the court, there’s no doubt that you have six judges appointed at this point,” Burns said. “And these are generally people who, I think, will interpret what needs to be interpreted, whether it’s a state statute or a federal statute. Their general philosophy is to adhere as closely as possible to the words of the statute.”

“You have a more conservative Supreme Court on this,” Burns continued. “And you certainly have Republicans generally making those kinds of arguments about courts interpreting state statutes or state constitutions, for example, in a stricter manner. So I think in that regard, given the arguments that each side makes generally, the Republicans would be in better shape. .”

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However, John Hardin Young, of counsel at Sandler Reiff, told Fox News Digital that he thinks the Supreme Court is highly unlikely to decide the 2024 election, noting the conservative majority in particular.

“I think there’s a sensitivity now among the nine justices not to get involved unless absolutely necessary,” Young said. “There is, I think, some bias of the majority of the Supreme Court to get involved if they think the process is corrupt or people are not following the rules, because the majority is, I think, very sensitive to democracy. depending on people following the rules.”

Wisconsin voters

Joseph Burns, a partner at Holtzman Vogel, noted that Republicans could prove successful in election litigation based on the structure of the Court. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)

“There are so many unknowns that we have to see how things play out,” said Jeff Weiss, a professor at New York Law School.

Although ECRA sought to clarify and revise the casting and counting of electoral votes, Teufle said the law as a whole could become the target of litigation after November 5th.

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“The whole act can be challenged if it’s used in a way that influences the outcome of an election in a way that people think is inappropriate, incorrect or illegal,” Teufle said. “Any party aggrieved by the way the vote was counted could raise constitutional questions about the laws used and the process used to count the votes.”