Bangladesh expects substantial growth in exports, although global trade dynamics have undergone significant changes in recent years.

A Finance Ministry document predicted growth based on the World Trade Organization (WTO) projection.

Although global trade contracted in 2023, it will grow in 2024 and beyond, according to the WTO.

The WTO also noted that the volume of world trade in goods has the potential to grow by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. It explained that as inflation falls, people will tend to buy more goods, which will stimulate exports.

However, advanced economies are likely to experience relatively modest export growth compared to emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), including Bangladesh.

EMDEs are countries that are often considered to have faster economic growth than others.

EMDE exports, on the other hand, are expected to grow by about 4 percent over the medium term, according to the document.

According to country-specific forecasts, Bangladesh’s export growth (volume) has slowed from 8.79% in 2023, while it is expected to be 3.93% in 2024. But the document says it will accelerate again and it will reach 8.83% by 2027.

The eurozone, which faced a significant contraction in 2023, is expected to gradually recover, with export growth rates of around 3% from 2025 onwards.

China’s export growth rate is expected to remain moderate, ranging from 1.8% in 2025 to 2.85% in 2026, while India’s export growth is expected to rebound strongly from a contraction of -2.76 % in 2023 to around 4% in 2025.

The outlook for UK export growth is modest, with contractions in 2023 and 2024, followed by modest growth rates below 2% until 2027.

In contrast, the US is projected to maintain a relatively stable export growth rate of around 3% over the 2024-2027 forecast period.

Along with the gradual recovery of exports, the official document says that imports are also expected to recover in the medium term (2026-2027).

As with export performance, EMDEs are expected to outperform advanced economies in terms of import growth, driven by factors such as infrastructure investment and expanding consumer markets.

While the outlook for global imports points to a gradual recovery, the paper noted that country-specific dynamics reveal varied trajectories.

For example, the IMF projected that Bangladesh’s import volume growth will rebound sharply from a contraction in 2023 to see modest growth in 2024 (4.1%) and robust growth in 2025 (around 18.0%).

China is expected to experience a declining trend in import growth of 3.4% in 2024 and 0.9% in 2025, while export growth in India is expected to accelerate from 4.8% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2025 and beyond.

Import growth in advanced economies such as the UK and US is forecast to remain low, with the UK even experiencing negative growth in 2025.