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    • Can Colin Allred Win Against Ted Cruz in Texas? Democrats hope so.
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    Can Colin Allred Win Against Ted Cruz in Texas? Democrats hope so.

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    Will Democrats wake up with a blue miracle in a red state come November?

    That’s the question hanging over the party as former NFL linebacker and Rep. Colin Allred faces Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in the closely watched Texas Senate race. Cruz, a two-term incumbent backed by Trump, has held the seat since 2013.

    And Democrats looked to the seat they could flip to retain control of the Senate, pouring millions of dollars into the race. Vice President Kamala Harris is also coming to Houston on Friday to huddle with Allred and talk about abortion rights. Famous pop star Beyonce is expected to make an appearance.

    Although Republicans are confident Cruz will win again this year, some polls show it will be a close race as both candidates I’m in a virtual heat less than two weeks until election day, which is November 5th. Year The Emerson College poll was released on October 23 found that 48 percent of likely Texan voters support Cruz, while 47 percent support Allred. The Cook Political Report changed the race from likely Republican to weak Republican.

    Other polls show Cruz leading by a narrow margin — even as former President Donald Trump leads the state in the presidential race by seven points or more.

    In the latter part of the race, both candidates are trying to appeal to undecided and middle-of-the-road voters, brand themselves as bipartisan, and defend their immigration records (a top issue in the state).

    “Overall, I think the race has remained very stable. He was within striking distance, but Allred couldn’t close that gap,” said Mark Jones, a professor in the political science department at Rice University.

    The Cruz campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

    It’s a different time, Allred says

    The only time a Democrat came close to beating Cruz was during his last re-election bid in 2018. Challenger Beto O’Rourke won 48.3% of the vote, while Cruz got 50.9% from votes.

    It marked a marked contrast to Cruz’s 2012 re-election bid, where won against Democratic challenger Paul Sadler with 16% of the vote.

    But Allred told USA TODAY in a phone interview that he is running a different campaign against a different candidate than Ted Cruz in 2018.

    He cited Cruz’s position on abortion, his decision to vote against the certification of the 2020 presidential election ballots for Joe Biden, and his 2021 trip to Cancun during a Texas winter storm as reasons why Cruz lost popularity among Texans.

    Katherine Fischer, who worked on O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign, said the Senate seat was viewed as a “long shot” at the time, which is why O’Rourke ran an active campaign strategy in which he visited all 254 counties in Texas to do so. it competes less from a distance and increases its name recognition. The result showed Cruz was in a vulnerable position, she said.

    Allred focused primarily on courting voters in suburban or urban areas, Fischer noted. His approach included appealing to a select audience – including moderates.

    The changing demographics in the state, with more minority groups moving in, could give him a slight edge.

    But with the Biden-Harris administration in power, Allred also faces increased scrutiny as polls show voters have been unhappy with Democrats’ handling of key issues like immigration and the economy.

    Allred defended himself, saying the race is not about political parties, it’s about candidates, and his record is different from his opponent’s. including transgender rights, abortion and immigration.

    Trump’s margin could drag Cruz to the finish line despite fundraising efforts

    Senate Democrats made last-minute investments in the race to give Allred a boost. Senate Majority PAC, a group aligned with Sen. Chuck Schumer, announced $5 TV investment last week of millions of euros, after a of several million dollars digital and radio investments.

    Last month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a million dollars investments in Texas and Florida Senate races.

    Compared to Allred, Cruz did not receive as much support from his own party.

    The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, did not invested at all in the Texas race. Cruz has been critical of McConnell and even once said he should lost its leadership role in 2015.

    But even with the fundraising, Democrats still face an uphill battle, said Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist who consulted on Cruz’s 2018 Senate bid.

    “I think ultimately Trump’s margin in Texas is likely to push Cruz over the line,” he said.

    Allred, Cruz mark themselves as bipartisan

    As both candidates travel through the Lone Star State, they’ve tried to cast themselves as bipartisan. Cruz, in particular, was rated as one of the most partisan members of the Senate in both terms.

    He voted against the bipartisan immigration bill and a Democratic bill on access to IVF. Both bills were supported by Allred.

    Although Allred was voted one of the most bipartisan members of Congress by the nonpartisan Common Ground Committee, he has taken a vocal stance on abortion rights. Earlier this month, he released an ad featuring Kate Cox, a Texan who gained national attention after leaving the state to have an abortion.

    But he also took a stand against the Democrats’ positions. He voted to convict Biden’s handling of the border and urged the Biden administration to end the pause on allowing new LNG export projects in an opinion piece.

    Even if Allred doesn’t win, it might not be a total loss for Democrats. Jones pointed out that his presence on the ticket is enough for Democrats to pick up seats in other Texas local races.

    Fischer, director of the Texas Majority PAC that aims to elect Democrats to statewide office, said her group will continue to work to unseat Cruz in the next election cycle, including raising money and increasing voter turnout.

    “Win or lose, this is not over for Texas Democrats,” she said.

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