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Jayden Daniels of the Commanders, Caleb Williams of the Bears and the OROY run
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Jayden Daniels of the Commanders, Caleb Williams of the Bears and the OROY run

ASHBURN, Va. — Both the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders drafted the quarterback they wanted last spring: Chicago selected USC Caleb Williams first general; one pick later, Washington took it Jayden Daniels of LSU.

Every QB so far has lived up to his team’s expectations. And if they continue their promising trajectories, the pair could compete for individual and team honors for years to come. But he starts with just one award this season: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

When the Commanders (5-2) host the Bears (4-2) on Sunday (4:25 p.m., ET, CBS) at Northwest Stadium, Daniels will enter the game as the -120 odds-on favorite to win the award. , according to ESPN BET. Williams is next at +105, followed by the New York Giants Malik Nabers (+2200) and the Jacksonville Jaguars Brian Thomas Jr. (+2500).

There is a chance that the storyline of the favorites facing each other could be spoiled, however, as Daniels is doubtful with a rib injury. But the award will be for a season, not for a game.

ESPN Bears reporter Courtney Cronin and Commanders reporter John Keim raise OROY odds for Williams and Daniels.

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

statistically: Daniels threw for 1,410 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions and trailed the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen (77.6) and the Baltimore Ravens Lamar Jackson (74.3) total QBR at 73.9. Daniels ran for 372 yards and four touchdowns. He leads the NFL in completion percentage at 75.6.

Beyond statistics: With 90 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Daniels would join former Washington star Robert Griffin III as the only players in NFL history with 1,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards in their first eight career games. Daniels has already set two records: the highest completion percentage after four games at 82.1 percent and the first to complete at least 85 percent of his passes in consecutive games.

Why he could win OROY: After four games, he was already being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate and was named Rookie of the Month for September. There are several reasons for Washington’s offensive resurgence — coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and his staff among them. But it all starts with Daniels.

Washington is averaging 30.1 points per game — hasn’t topped 20 points per game for a season since 2017. Daniels’ accuracy helps in the passing game, and his threat to run helps others in the running game running.

Consider, too, that Daniels joins a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 and won just four games last year — and has a new coaching staff and an overhauled roster. However, after just seven games, the Chiefs are considered a strong contender to win the division.

“He’s the leader of our team,” veteran tight end Zach Ertz said. “He’s a phenomenal player and he’s going to be a great player for a long time.”

Why it might fall short: Daniels’ durability in the second half will be tested. He has been hit 79 times this season, sixth among quarterbacks.

At 210 pounds, Daniels is lightweight — will injuries slow him down at all? More likely, Williams could emerge with the talent around him. He has a QBR of 75.3 over the past three games, up from 46.5 for the season, and benefits from a stronger defense that provides more opportunities. — Kim


Caleb Williams, Bears

statistically: Williams threw for 1,317 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. His 65.3% completion percentage and 88.7 passer rating both rank 20th among starting quarterbacks, while his 46.4 total QBR ranks 26th. After a rocky 1-2 start, Williams has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in the last two games for an offense that ranks 12th in points per game (24.7).

Beyond statistics: If Williams throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders, he will become the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have three such games in his first seven starts.

Why he could win OROY: Williams has had a passer rating over 100 in each of his last three games while completing 74.1 percent of his passes since Week 4, and he’s the catalyst for an offense with plenty of potential.

Chicago’s offense began to unravel by putting up 35 points in back-to-back wins over the Carolina Panthers and Jaguars. The No. 1 overall pick is three passing touchdowns away from setting a rookie franchise record (12) and would eclipse Mitchell TrubiskyBears rookie passing record (2,193 yards) averaging 219.5 yards per game.

And while he’s raised the bar for a once-dormant passing attack, Williams has also shown he can be a threat to create outside the structure with 110 rushing yards (7.3 yards/run) over the last his three games.

“I mean, who’s going to stop the defense?” wide receiver Keenan Allen said. “Are you going to stop the quarterback or the guys running the routes? It’s hard to do both.”

Why it might fall short: Team success could influence a player’s chances to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud won last year leading the Houston Texans to the postseason. The Bears will need to keep winning in a stacked NFC North, where all four teams have winning records and the three defenses Williams will face twice each from Weeks 11-18 are ranked in the top-10 in EPA/play.

That stretch will ultimately determine whether the Bears are a playoff team, and their path to getting there will require a lot from the rookie quarterback. — Cronin