WASHINGTON — American voters are approaching the presidential election with deep unease about what could come next, including the potential for political violence, attempts to overturn the election results and their broader implications for democracy, according to a new poll.

The findings of the poll, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, speak to lingering concerns about the fragility of the world’s oldest democracy, nearly four years after former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the results of the 2020 election inspired a lot. of his supporters to storm the US Capitol in a violent attempt to stop the peaceful transfer of power.

About 4 in 10 registered voters say they are “extremely” or “very” worried about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. A similar party is concerned about legal efforts to do so. And about 1 in 3 voters say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to stop the completion of results.

Relatively few voters—about a third or less—are “not very” or “not at all” concerned about any of this.

Trump has continued to lie about the fraud that cost him re-election four years ago and is again predicting that he can only lose this time if the election is rigged against him, a strategy he has employed since his first candidacy. His allies and the Republican National Committee, which he reshaped, have filed lawsuits across the country that are a potential prelude to post-election legal challenges should he lose.

“I thought after Jan. 6, 2021, the GOP would have the sense to reject him as the nominee,” Aostara Kaye, of Downey, Calif., said of Trump. “And since they didn’t, I think it encouraged him to think he could do anything and they’d still stick with him.”

Many voters believe that Trump will not admit if he loses

Trump’s broad attempts to reject the will of voters and hang on to power after his 2020 loss have led to concerns that he won’t concede again if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nearly 9 in 10 voters said the winner of the presidential election is bound to concede once each state finishes counting votes and legal challenges are resolved, including about 8 in 10 Republicans. But only about a third of voters expect Trump to accept the results and concede if he loses.

Democrats and Republicans have widely divergent views on the matter: About two-thirds of Republican voters think Trump would concede, compared with only about 1 in 10 Democrats.

The same concern does not apply to Harris. Nearly 8 in 10 voters said Harris would accept the results and concede if he loses the election, including a solid majority of Republican voters.

Democrats and Republicans were divided over who would weaken democracy

Members of both parties have deep concerns about how American democracy might evolve depending on the outcome of the November election.

Overall, about half of voters think Trump would weaken US democracy “a lot” or “somewhat” if he wins, while about 4 in 10 said the same about Harris.

Not surprisingly, Americans were deeply divided along ideological lines. About 8 in 10 Republicans said another term for Trump would strengthen democracy “a lot” or “somewhat,” while a similar share of Democrats said the same about a Harris presidency.

About 9 in 10 voters in each party said the opposing party’s candidate could weaken democracy at least “somewhat” if elected.

Kaye, a retired health care worker, called Trump “an existential threat to the Constitution.” One prospect she said scares her is that if Trump wins, he likely won’t have the guardrails in his new administration that were in place in the last.

Republican voter Debra Apodaca, 60, of Tucson, Arizona, said Harris is a bigger threat to democracy. She said President Joe Biden’s administration has placed too much priority on foreign aid and has shown a lack of concern for its own people.

“Our tax dollars, we’re just sending them all over the place. Don’t stay here. Why don’t we take care of America?” she said. “Why should we pay taxes if we just ship it?”

That lack of concern includes the border, she said, adding that a Harris victory would be “the end of the Border Patrol.”

The January 6 attack on the Capitol is a dividing line

Part of what divides voters over their views on American democracy is the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and who is to blame. Democrats and independents are significantly more likely than Republican voters to attribute “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility to Trump.

Susan Ohde, an independent Chicago voter and retiree from the financial industry, said she is concerned that “crazy people will buy the misinformation that they’re giving out,” leading to another such attack.

Giovanna Elizabeth Minardi of Yucaipa, Calif., said other issues are more important in this year’s election. She said her main concern is the economy, and she believes high prices, especially in her home state, are driving away businesses and creating a dependency on government. It’s an addiction Harris wants to continue, said Minardi, a child and family services attorney.

Opinions about the January 6 attack are not the only ones where voters have divided along ideological lines. Following Trump’s lead, most Republicans argue that Biden was not legitimately elected. Nearly all Democrats and about 7 in 10 independents believe Biden was legitimately elected.

Other aspects of the political system are also divisive

This year’s presidential campaign highlighted an aspect of the American political system that some consider undemocratic — the use of the Electoral College to elect the president, rather than the popular vote. Trump and Harris have focused their campaign events and advertising in seven battleground states that account for just 18 percent of the country’s population.

About half of voters think the possibility of a candidate becoming president by winning the Electoral College but losing the popular vote is a “major problem” in US elections. As with many other issues, the question also reveals a partisan divide: About two-thirds of Democrats say the potential for a split of the electoral college and popular vote is a major problem, compared with about a third of Republicans.

Debra Christensen, 54, a home health aide and Democrat from Watertown, Wis., opposes the Electoral College that could give Trump the White House even if he loses the popular vote for a third time.

“In this day and age with technology, why can’t we have one person one vote?” she said.

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The survey of 1,072 adults was conducted October 11-14, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.