BANGKOK – Three well-armed militias launched a joint surprise offensive in the northeast Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s army by rapidly gaining huge swathes of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Before the offensive, the military’s control had appeared firmly established with its vast superiority in troops and firepower and aided by material support from Russia and China. But today it is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities which even its leaders admit will be a challenge to regain.

How did the offensive unfold?

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, sparking intensification of fighting with long-standing armed groups associated with Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups and triggering the formation of new pro-democracy militias.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its October 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely managed to prevent major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, collectively known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance – and succeeded in capturing quickly cities. and overran military bases and outposts along the border with China in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later Arakan army launched attacks in his western home state of Rakhineand since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined across the country.

A year later, on the offensive, resistance forces now control all or part of a vast horseshoe territory that reaches from Rakhine state in the west, across the north, and then south into Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw retreated to the center around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

What’s next?

Many expect the military to launch a counter-offensive when the rainy season ends soon, bolstered by an influx of around 30,000 new troops from activation of recruitment in February and his continued complete air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, the second-largest city in central Myanmar.

Facing threats from across the country, “there doesn’t seem to be any viable way back for the military to recapture any lost territory,” said Connor Macdonald of the advocacy group the Special Advisory Council on Myanmar.

“The military is on the defensive across the country and every time it puts its energy in one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then it’s vulnerable in other parts,” he said.

What happened to the civilian population of Myanmar?

As the military faced setbacks in ground fighting, it increasingly relied on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, leading to a 95% increase in civilian casualties from airstrikes and a 170 % of civilians killed by artillery since the offensive in 1027. began, according to a report last month by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw was accused of which deliberately targets civilians in retaliation for perceived support for resistance militias, which he denies.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are currently more than 3 million displaced people in Myanmar and an estimated 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN.

What happens if the military regime falls?

As the front has expanded, they have seen militias advance from their own ethnic areas, such as when the Rakhine-based Arakan army captured the town of Chin Paletwa in January, sparking friction between the groups – foreshadowing possible future problems if the Tatmadaw eventually fall.

At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the disparate ethnic groups, with a focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Myanmar Institute for Strategy and Policy, said this does not translate into shared aspirations.

Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“Resistance succeeding in bringing down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot ignore this scenario,” he said. “If we can’t build trust and common goals, it could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what proved to be a successful attempt to shut down organized crime activities that had flourished along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months before the ethnic alliance launched the second phase of its 1027 offensive in June, accusing the army of violating the provisions. cease fire.

China has been unhappy with the development, closing border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar’s cities and taking other measures in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.