BANGKOK — Three well-armed militias launched a joint surprise offensive in the northeast Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s army by rapidly gaining huge swathes of territory and inspiring others to attack across the country.

Army control seemed firmly established with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of strategic outposts, bases and cities that even leaders recognition would be difficult to take back.

“The military is on the defensive across the country, and every time it puts its energy in one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then it’s vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Group’s of advocacy in Myanmar.

“To us, it does not appear that there is any viable way back for the military to recapture any of the territory it has lost.”

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, sparking intensified fighting with long-standing armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have fought for decades for more autonomy.

The military takeover also triggered the formation of pro-democracy militias known as the People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition The Government of National Unitywhich was established by elected parliamentarians who were barred from taking their seats after the military takeover.

But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its October 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely managed to prevent major casualties across the country.

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks by three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured cities and overran military bases and outposts along the border with China in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later, Arakan army launched attacks in his native western state of Rakhineand since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined across the country.

A year after the start of the offensive, the resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast territory in the horseshoe. Start in Rakhine state in the west, passes through the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw retreated to central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Yangon.

“We never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, a spokesman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We thought we’d attack the military council together as much as we could, but it was easier than we expected, so we were able to conquer faster.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw suffered something humiliating defeatsincluding the loss of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 soldiers, including six generals; and al the city of Lashio, which had been the home of the army’s North Eastern Command.

“The 1027 offensive was an extremely impressive, quite complex operation, and the use of drones played an important role as they were able to dismantle the army’s network of fire support bases in northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a headquarters in Singapore. analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who runs it Myanmar conflict map design.

“And then, once the Army’s artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun tougher targets like cities and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.

The Tatmadaw was able to recover the city of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the early days of the offensive in 1027, prevented the attack of three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah State and retained administrative control over Myawaddya key border crossing point with Thailand after holding off an attack by an ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.

Many expect the army to launch a counter-offensive when the rainy season ends soon, backed by around 30,000 new troops since then. activation of recruitment in February and his complete air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, in the center of the country.

And where they might be outmatched, they have gained strength, hard-earned experience and confidence over the past year, said Lway Yay Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

“We have military experience on our side and based on this experience we can strengthen the combat operation,” she said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for military regimeacknowledged that it would be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it had won.

“We can’t take it back for a year,” he told the AP in an emailed response to questions. “Nevertheless, I hope to send you a message of joy … in (the next) two or three years.”

As the military faced setbacks in ground fighting, it increasingly relied on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, leading to a 95% increase in civilian casualties from airstrikes and a 170 % of civilians killed by artillery since the offensive in 1027. began, according to a report last month by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw was accused of which deliberately targets civilians which he believes are supporting resistance militias, a tactic that only backfires more against them, said Isabel Todd, SAC-M group coordinator.

“It doesn’t seem to have the effect they want it to have,” she said. “It makes them even more hated by the population and really strengthens the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it is known.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying militia groups were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are currently more than 3 million displaced people in Myanmar and an estimated 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN.

At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, which is hampering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ Myanmar operation.

“The the humanitarian perspective for next year is bleak and we anticipate that the deterioration of the situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

However, in some areas, the offensive has eased pressure, such as the northwestern state of Chin, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many Tatmadaw operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesman of the Chin National Front whose armed wing. he was involved in the fight with the army.

“Last October, military convoys going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of Operation 1027, almost no major military activities took place.”

As the front has expanded, they have seen militias advance from their own ethnic areas, as when the Rakhine-based Arakan army captured Chin in January. the town of Paletwawhich gave rise to friction between the groups, foreshadowing possible future fighting should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.

In Paletwa’s case, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA had taken over from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before it began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring in the Chin forces to help. manage the area.

“Negotiations are mandatory for these issues of regional administration,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not through military means.”

Currently, there is a degree of solidarity between the various ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Myanmar Institute for Strategy and Policy, said this does not translate into common aspirations .

Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“As far as I can see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance succeeding in overthrowing the junta is unlikely, but I cannot ignore this scenario (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the Syria scenario.”

Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a largely successful attempt to shut down. organized crime activities which had flourished along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brothers to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months until The ethnic alliance opened the second phase of the June 1027 offensive, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been unhappy with the development, closing border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar’s cities and taking other measures in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

Its support for the regime also appears to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful Wa United State Army, which was not involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to put active pressure on Myanmar’s National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang’s. National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.

There is no evidence that the UWSA did this, however.

“The idea that the Nordic groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. that they are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.

“They have their own goals that they’re pursuing that are independent of what China might or might not want to do, and that’s evident in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”