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    Trump, Harris in direct race

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    WASHINGTON – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been neck and neck in polls for weeks, a trend that isn’t changing according to a pair of polls released Sunday.

    A CBS News/YouGov poll showed Harris leading Trump nationally 50%-49% among likely voters, down slightly from a 51%-48% lead in mid-October but well within the poll’s margin of error.

    An ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, in part because of Harris’ advantage among women voters. The results are slightly outside the poll’s margin of error, +/-2.5 percentage points.

    Pollsters agreed that the election will likely be decided by which campaign does a better job of pitching voters in the run-up to Election Day. That’s especially true in the seven battleground states that are widely expected to decide the race for the White House.

    Here’s what you need to know about the results of the presidential election on Sunday, October 27.

    ABC: Harris woke up – but the race is still tight

    While reporting that Harris has a 51%-47% lead among likely voters nationally, ABC noted that the race is too close to call. the deciding states from Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

    The race is also tighter among all registered voters, not just those likely to vote this year. Harris leads Trump 49%-47%, within the poll’s margin of error.

    The survey was conducted online Oct. 18-22, in English and Spanish, among 2,808 adults. It has a margin of sampling error of +/- 2.5 percentage points for likely voters, +/- 2 percentage points for registered voters, and +/- 5.5 percentage points in swing states.

    Economy, the most important frontier for Republicans; Democrats say health, democracy

    The ABC News/Ipsos poll, like others, highlighted how both campaigns are trying to build coalitions based on specific issues.

    Harris has advantages with voters who support access to health care and want to protect democracy; Trump is doing well with voters who are concerned about the economy and immigration policy.

    Among Democratic survey respondents registered to vote, 90 percent said health care is very important to them, compared to 64 percent of Republicans. Additionally, 91 percent of Democrats said the same about “protecting American democracy,” compared to 80 percent of Republicans.

    On the other side of the aisle, 96 percent of registered Republican voters surveyed said the economy is very important to them, compared to 86 percent of Democrats. And 90 percent of Republican survey respondents said “the immigration system at the U.S.-Mexico border” is very important, along with 50 percent of Democrats.

    CBS: Trump, Harris deadlocked

    CBS found that Harris leads Trump by 1 percentage point nationally, and the two are tied 50%-50% in battleground states.

    Snuff demographic factors citedespecially what might end up like a record-setting gender gap. By ten percentage points, women voters are more likely than men “to say that only Kamala Harris has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, and Trump does not.”

    Overall, 55 percent of Democratic poll respondents who are likely to vote this fall said they are choosing Harris at the polls, compared to 45 percent of male Democrats polled. When it comes to Trump, 43 percent of Republican women said they support the former president, compared to 54 percent of Republican men.

    The CBS/YouGov survey was conducted among 1,261 voters between October 23-25. The margin of error is +/- 2.6 percentage points, and swing states studied include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    Things to consider about surveys

    The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population.

    When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

    Pew has, too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

    Contributed by Kinsey Crowley

    Online Niel
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