(WASHINGTON) — Catholic voters have always been a key voting bloc in every presidential election, with candidates vying hard for their support.

And this year, the battle for their votes became aggressive as former President Donald Trump repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that Vice President Kamala Harris was anti-Catholic.

While Harris did not say the same about Trump, she sent a message to Catholic voters that her policies are in line with their social and political views and priorities. But in reality, academics who have studied the role of religion in politics tell ABC News that it is not easy to put a single label on the country’s Catholics.

“It’s really interesting that the Catholic Church is probably one of the few places where you find people of different perspectives sitting together at Sunday Mass,” said Margaret Susan Thompson, professor of history at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs. , for ABC. News.

Thompson and others said that if past election results are any indication, Catholic voter turnout and the choices they make at the polls will depend on a variety of factors.

Demographic change shows schism in voting patterns

Thompson, who has researched Catholic voting trends, said that overall, Catholics have voted more Republican over the past 44 years after abortion became a major campaign issue for Christians as a whole.

But over those decades, she noted, the makeup of American Catholics has also changed as the number of non-white Catholics has grown.

Since 2007, the share of American Catholics who are white has fallen by 8 percentage points, while the share of Hispanics has increased by 4 points, according to data from the Pew Research Center.

“It changed the map a lot,” Thompson said. “Latino Catholics have grown in numbers in the South and in swing states like Arizona and have brought their own perspectives to their faith and beliefs.”

Ryan Burge, an associate professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University who has compiled data on the voting patterns of religious groups in the county, agreed.

“The Catholic vote is full of contradictions,” Burge said. “There are a lot of cross-pressures that they face. They can be white, but also union members. They may be against LGTBQ rights, but they want better immigration rights.”

Burge told ABC News that the increased diversity among Catholics also reflected a shift in presidential races.

In 2020, 56 percent of Catholic voters voted Republican, according to data compiled by him from Harvard University’s Cooperative Electoral Study. However, when the community was broken down by race, 59 percent of white Catholics voted Republican in the last election, while only 31 percent of non-white Catholics voted GOP.

“We see the same racial trends for most religious groups,” he explained.

Not in communion with the teaching of the Catholic Church

Thompson said the diversity also extends to Catholics’ political leanings.

For example, Pew found that 61 percent of all Catholics believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases. An ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 55 percent of Catholics would prefer that the federal government restore access to abortion as it was before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

“Just because the hierarchy says ‘this is right, this is wrong’ doesn’t mean every Catholic will follow suit,” she said.

Burge also noted that cultural ties outside of one’s religion accounted for the individual leanings of certain Catholic groups.

For example, he noted that data showed that Latino Catholics were less in favor of promoting LGBTQ rights and the ideals of socialism than their black and white counterparts.

“I think they’re pulled in two directions,” he said of Latino Catholics. “Traditionally, they’ve been Democrats, and I’ve seen them in a majority still vote Democrat, but they’ve always been culturally conservative. I think that’s where you’re seeing the shift in some Republican-voting Latino circles because of the party’s messaging on these issues.”

A recent ABCNews/Ipsos poll found likely Catholic voters closely split on voting preferences, 51-48 percent Trump-Harris.

“I think they appear to be a more moderate voting bloc. I don’t think they can be taken for granted,” Burge said.

Trump criticizes Harris for Catholic vote in election campaign

Since the start of the election season, the Trump, Biden and Harris campaigns have tried to court various religious groups.

Trump in particular has lashed out at rallies, social media and interviews against Harris, calling her anti-Catholic. He claimed in a Social Truth post that she lost the Catholic vote because of her stance on reproductive rights and was “persecuting” the group.

“Any Catholic who votes for Comrade Kamala Harris should have their heads examined,” he said in a Truth Social post in September.

Harris rarely made direct comments about the Catholic vote during the campaign and did not attend the annual Al Smith dinner hosted by the Archdiocese of New York, saying it was due to scheduling conflicts.

Even though she was the first presidential candidate not to attend the dinner in 40 years, she gave a video speech that included a skit with “Saturday Night Live” alum Molly Shannon.

“The Gospel according to Luke tells us that faith has the power to enlighten those who live in darkness and to guide our feet on the path of peace. In the spirit of tonight’s dinner, let us recommit to reaching across divisions, to seek understanding and common ground,” she said.

Trump, breaking with the gentle dinner roast, continued his attacks on Harris at the dinner.

“You can’t do what I just saw on that screen, but my opponent feels she shouldn’t be here, which is deeply disrespectful to the event and especially to our great Catholic community. Very disrespectful,” he said.

The rhetoric does nothing to sway Catholic voters

Despite the media attention, experts said Trump’s rhetoric and back-and-forth with Harris over the Catholic vote won’t move the needle.

Thompson said there are very few undecided voters left and most voters’ preferences are locked in at this point.

She also noted that Trump’s attacks and messages are no different than the language he uses for other religious groups, such as Jewish voters, Latino voters and black voters.

“It’s his catchphrase: ‘They should get their heads checked,'” she said.

Thompson also noted that the sentiment applies to the Vatican.

Pope Francis weighed in on the September election and appeared to take a middle ground, arguing that “You have to choose the lesser of two evils.”

“Who is the lesser of two evils? That lady or that gentleman? I don’t know,” he told reporters during a press conference.

Francis did not directly name Trump or Harris or any political party, but even as he noted the church’s opposition to abortion, he also emphasized a more moderate stance on social issues.

“To send the migrants, to leave them where you want, to leave them… is something terrible, it is bad there. Casting a child from the mother’s womb is murder, because there is life. We need to speak clearly about these things,” he said.

Thompson said the pope has contributed to a major schism among Catholics, with more conservative members rejecting his progressive positions on LGBTQ rights and the environment, and more liberal members calling him out for not changing the church’s position on rights reproductive.

“There is selective listening to the Pope by everyone,” she said. “I don’t think even his lack of support will really change people’s minds.”

Burge said that at the end of the day, the moments that will affect the Catholic vote are in the candidates’ rhetoric and actions in recent days.

“Politicians have always had a problem talking about religion without seeming to enjoy it,” he said. “The public only cares about where they stand and how they’re going to address the issues they think are important.”

Copyright © 2024, ABC Audio. All rights reserved.