Throughout the 2024 college football season, ESPN’s FPI analytics have been fairly accurate in predicting the outcome of Illinois games.

With 10 Illini games on the books, ESPN has nine correct picks — the only misstep coming in an Oct. 19 win over Michigan, for which the Illini were given a 41.3 percent chance to win.

After an impressive 38-16 win over Michigan State last Saturday, No. 24 Illinois (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) is back in the AP poll and looks to continue its momentum in New Brunswick, New Jersey, this Saturday against of Rutgers (6-4, 3-4 Big Ten).

Aiming to finish the regular season 9-3, Illinois needs a win over Rutgers and then a win over Northwestern at Wrigley Field next week to match the winningest season the program has seen since 2007.

Unfortunately, if ESPN’s FPI Predictor maintains its accuracy in predicting Illinois matchups this season, the Illini are set to come up short as the formula favors the Scarlet Knights with a 53.6% win probability.

However, other recent history is on Illinois’ side, as Rutgers has already dropped two home games in which it was favored by ESPN, including a massive 42-7 loss at Wisconsin — a contest the Scarlet Knights entered having a 64.1% winning chance.

After that loss, Rutgers got UCLA in town and, with a 68.4 percent win probability, fell again, this time 35-32 to the Bruins.

After four straight losses and a 1-4 Big Ten record, Rutgers’ season looked all but lost — until it hit Minnesota at home (an ESPN matchup gave the Scarlet Knights just a 45.5 percent chance to win) and then blew up Maryland. 31-17.

Between those bleak projections and Rutgers’ up-and-down season, fans and punters shouldn’t have clear expectations Saturday at SHI Stadium.

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