About 50% of Americans believe the winner of the presidential election will affect their own finances, a Recent survey from fintech company Empower found. And while the president can do a lot of things on his own — like invade a country or declare a state of emergency — their effect on the economy and the stock market is more nuanced.

The economy is not just one thing – it is influenced by many different factors and components.

Here’s what the presidential candidates had to say about the following topics that could affect Americans’ finances:

rates

A common political refrain is that the president can’t do anything without the support of Congress. And while this is often true, there is one notable exception: tariffs.

A tariff is a tax on a good imported from another country, and federal law allows a president to impose them without congressional approval. Former President Donald Trump, who imposed several rounds of tariffs during his time in office, said he would raise tariffs to boost American manufacturing, including a 60% tariff on all goods from China.

“This could be very damaging to the economy and have a negative impact on the stock market,” said David Kass, clinical professor of finance at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business.

When a country raises tariffs, the difference in cost is usually passed on to the consumer. That means higher prices for anything not made in America — which means most things.

“You’re going to be poorer because everything you buy is going to be more expensive,” said Nicholas Creel, assistant professor of business law at Georgia College & State University.

Tax reductions

Major changes to the tax code await the next president, who will need support from Congress to make his plans a reality. Some cuts passed by Trump in 2017 will end next year.

Trump says he wants to cut taxes again, with most of the benefits going to corporations and those outside the middle class.

“His economic tax plan would be a significant boon to the wealth of the top 5 percent,” Creel said. “Almost everyone else will be no better off in the short term, and almost everyone would be worse off in the long term.”

Vice President Kamala Harris may face resistance with her proposal to keep the 2017 tax cuts for people making up to $400,000 a year and raise rates for those earning more.

Student loans

Can a president cancel student loans? In 2023, the Supreme Court struck down President Joe Biden’s initiative to cancel debt for 40 million borrowers, saying the plan needed congressional approval.

Trump has repeatedly said he wants to cut education spending, including less funding for student loan relief programs. Harris is expected to continue the efforts she and Biden have made to reduce student loan debt, but analysts do not anticipate quick results.

“Any progress that has been made would stop immediately under the Trump administration,” Creel said. “Under a Harris administration, it would struggle. They’re still finding these piecemeal ways to do it.”

Small businesses

Harris and Trump’s proposals to help companies would also need a friendly Congress.

Harris wants to encourage people to start businesses and plans to offer a $50,000 tax credit for new business owners – a huge increase from the current $5,000 tax credit. This can make it easier for small businesses to succeed, especially those without family or other support.

“Success rates should go up quite significantly for small businesses,” Creel said.

For larger companies, Trump wants to offer additional tax cuts — possibly reduction of the profit tax rate to 15%. He plans to cut it by raising fares.

Kass said many Wall Street experts believe a Harris administration — with higher corporate tax rates — will hurt companies. As the company’s profits are likely to decline due to higher tax rates, the stock may take a tumble.

That’s one reason Kass says Wall Street seems to prefer divided government — with one party in charge of the presidency and the other in charge of Congress.

“That seems to be pretty much the consensus coming out of Wall Street,” Kass said.

Congressional races matter

While it’s important to look at a president’s policies and budgets, it’s also crucial to remember another important factor: which side the House and Senate take.

“A lot of the power the president will have will depend on who controls Congress,” Kass said.

If Harris wins, but has a Republican House and Senate, it will be difficult for her to advance many of her ideas. The same would be true for Trump with a Democratic Congress.