1) Introduction

Nigeria is a country endowed with vast natural resources, including oil, natural gas and expansive arable land, positioning it as one of Africa’s leading economies and investment hubs. As Africa’s largest economy, the World Bank noted in 2023 that Nigeria is a beacon for investment opportunities, especially in agriculture, which plays a central role in boosting economic growth. However, despite these strengths, Nigeria’s food security is under significant pressure, with projections showing that millions more people will face acute food insecurity by 2025. This crisis directly affects progress and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals , SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and wider implications for SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 13 (Climate Action). This policy paper assesses the drivers of food insecurity in Nigeria, provides projections to 2025 and outlines policy recommendations to address the crisis.

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2) Current situation and key drivers of food insecurity

Food insecurity in Nigeria is expected to worsen significantly, with estimates indicating that by mid-2024, about 26.5 million Nigerians could face acute hunger, a significant increase from 18.6 million at the end of 2023 This growing crisis is attributed to several factors such as: persistent conflicts, particularly in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, which have displaced millions of people, disrupted agricultural activities and restricted access to food . Rising inflation and high import costs further strain the economy, making essential staples unaffordable for many households. Thus, climate-related challenges such as recurrent floods and droughts further exacerbate the vulnerability of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, undermining productivity, especially among rural farming communities.

In this context, the Nigerian economy has seen both growth and decline in recent years with fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP). Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate that GDP growth remained resilient at 3.46% in Q4 2023, but fell to 3.19% in Q2 2024, strained by inflationary pressures and ultimately hit a 28-year high of 32.7% in September 2024. Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have destabilized global food prices, increasing pressure on domestic food security . In addition, security challenges in agricultural regions, including violent conflicts and banditry, have disrupted agricultural activities. In 2023 alone, the World Development Indicator noted that more than 1.6 million hectares of agricultural land were lost to flooding, reducing food availability and intensifying pressure on prices.

“However, despite these strengths, Nigeria’s food security is under significant pressure, with projections showing that millions more will face acute food insecurity by 2025.”

Agriculture plays a central role in Nigeria’s economy, contributing significantly to national output and providing a large proportion of employment. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicates that since 1990, agriculture has consistently accounted for more than 20% of Nigeria’s annual GDP, averaging about 25%, which exceeds sectors such as mining (12% ), manufacturing (8%), and construction (3 percent). About 70% of Nigerian households (about 140 million people) are actively involved in agriculture, either directly or indirectly, as indicated by the National Bureau of Statistics.

However, the performance of the agricultural sector has been hampered by inadequate access to financial and credit facilities, which limits farmers’ ability to improve productivity and use modern farming techniques. The demand for finance in agriculture is estimated at N8 trillion, but only a small portion of this (about 6 percent), as noted by the CBN, is being met by financial institutions.

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Figure 2: Sectoral Distribution of Loans and Advances (Billion Naira)

This poor performance of the agricultural sector has wider implications for food security in Nigeria. Inadequate financing and low productivity have contributed to the country’s declining export capacity as Nigeria, once a significant net food exporter, now struggles to meet domestic food demand. The share of food exports in total merchandise exports has fallen dramatically from 63% in 1962 to just 3% by 2022, while Nigeria has become increasingly dependent on food imports. These structural problems in the agricultural sector are key drivers of food insecurity, compounding market access challenges, high input costs, post-harvest losses and insecurity.

“Thus, climate-related challenges such as recurrent floods and droughts further exacerbate the vulnerability of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, undermining productivity, particularly among rural farming communities.”

3) Food insecurity projections in Nigeria to 2025

If current trends persist, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has warned that food insecurity in Nigeria is expected to worsen significantly. Analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated that by 2025, up to 33 million Nigerians may face severe food shortages due to worsening economic, environmental and security factors. The frequency and severity of extreme weather events, along with persistent security threats, suggest a bleak outlook for agricultural productivity. Without intervention, domestic food production is likely to fall short of demand, pushing more Nigerians into food dependency and poverty. In addition, economic volatility due to high inflation and currency devaluation is expected to further increase costs, making food unaffordable for vulnerable populations.

4) A cause for alarm: an urgent call to action on food security and policy intervention

To avert a looming food crisis, Nigeria must prioritize tailored policy interventions to improve the agricultural base, ranging from:

Investing in Innovation in Climate Resilient Agriculture: Climate Smart Practices are Key to Building Resilience in Nigerian Agriculture. Investments in drought-resistant crops, improved irrigation and climate-adapted farming techniques can reduce vulnerability to extreme weather. The government should encourage partnerships to boost climate adaptation resources in the agricultural sector.

Alignment of state-level policies for food security: States such as Kano, Benue and Niger are known for the production of staple crops such as maize, yams and rice. Alignment of MoA policies with state governments can help tailor interventions.

Improving security in agricultural regions: Increasing security in agricultural areas is essential. Thus, tackling banditry and conflict in agricultural areas will allow farmers to grow and distribute their produce safely, stabilizing food supplies. The government should focus on community-based security initiatives to protect farming communities.

Strengthening food supply chains and storage infrastructure: Post-harvest losses and logistical inefficiencies contribute to food shortages. Nigeria can improve food security by expanding storage infrastructure, creating more efficient transport networks and supporting local food processing industries. These efforts would help stabilize prices and reduce dependence on food imports.

Economic and social support for vulnerable populations: Social protection programs can provide a buffer against food insecurity. Targeted food assistance, subsidies for essential goods and inflation-linked income support would alleviate immediate hardship for the hardest-hit households. Aligning monetary policies with food security objectives could help mitigate the negative effects of inflation on food prices.

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6) Conclusion and recommendation

As it stands, without immediate and well-coordinated action, food insecurity could reach unprecedented levels by 2025, putting millions of lives at risk. Although international agencies such as the World Food Program (WFP) provide crucial food aid and financial support, available resources are insufficient to meet the growing demand. Without substantial intervention and long-term strategies, millions of Nigerians may face increasingly severe food shortages. Building resilience in the agricultural sector through climate-adaptive practices, improving security in agricultural areas and strengthening food supply infrastructure are essential steps. The government, in collaboration with the private sector and international partners, must prioritize these efforts to protect Nigeria’s food future. Through focused and sustained intervention, Nigeria can mitigate the risks of food insecurity, laying the foundations for a more stable and prosperous nation.

Prof. Joseph Nnanna; Chief Economist, Development Bank of Nigeria.
(The views expressed in this article are those of the author; they do not necessarily reflect the policy of the Development Bank of Nigeria.)