The President of Russia Vladimir Putin he does not want Kursk to be used as a bargaining chip — nor does he want to be forced to give up any of the Ukrainian territory he has captured since the Russian invasion, Remchukov added. Putin’s recent remarks that any deal must reflect “the realities on the ground” refer to Russia’s hopes of recapturing Kursk, he said.

In the past week, the Kremlin has dramatically stepped up its maximalist rhetoric on the peace talks, suggesting it will be no more willing to make concessions to a future Trump administration than it was to President Joe Biden.

In an interview with Russian state television on Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov appeared to preemptively reject any proposal to freeze the conflict and the current front – as proposed by those around Trump – calling the suggestion “even more bad” than Minsk. agreements that followed the 2014 war in eastern Ukraine.

Russian military blogger and propagandist Mikhail Zvinciuk, who founded the Rybar Telegram channel, said Trump may try to pressure Moscow with Ukraine’s occupation of Kursk, but that he expected it to resume in the coming weeks or months.

“I think, in any case, the Kursk issue will be resolved before Trump’s inauguration,” he said, describing the recent Russian assault as the third wave of a sustained counteroffensive that he claims has eliminated Ukraine’s reserves and logistics in Sumy border region. in Ukraine and allowed Russia to reconquer several settlements.

Ukrainian forces seized between 1,000 and 1,500 square kilometers in the first two weeks of the Kursk operation in August, said Pasi Paroinen, an analyst at Black Bird Group, an open-source intelligence analysis collective based in Helsinki. Russia has steadily counter-attacked since then, and with an ongoing three-pronged assault, he predicted the Ukrainian’s ground would shrink further in the coming days.

Not smooth sailing

But the latest assault did not go smoothly for the Russians, according to Ukrainian troops. After more than a week of relentless fighting, they say, Russia has made only small gains and lost significant numbers of troops and equipment along the way.

Despite the increased pressure, Ukrainians say, they are largely holding the line.

Oleksandr, 39, who works on intelligence in the Kursk region for the 82nd Brigade, said Ukrainian troops had destroyed more than 50 Russian vehicles, including APCs and tanks, in recent days. Russian soldiers continued to repeat their mistakes, he said, such as moving on roads controlled by Ukrainian firepower, missing turns and even firing at their own infantry positions.

Amid constant reports of the Russians brutally treating captive Ukrainians, he himself witnessed the killing of captured soldiers in real time via drone footage. He spoke on condition that he be identified only by his first name because of military rules.

On Monday, Oleksandr saw Russian soldiers take a Ukrainian position, capture two soldiers and then shoot them, in footage later verified by The Washington Post.

In retaliation, Oleksandr said, the Ukrainian command post launched a barrage of drones on the Russians to try to kill the Russian troops and destroy their vehicle.

For those few minutes, “the Russians who executed our prisoners were our highest priority target,” Oleksandr said, adding that Ukraine later retook the position. “But you don’t have enough time to think about it much because you have a job to do; you have more Russians to kill.”

Artem Efanov, a drone operator with the 82nd Brigade who spoke via video chat from a dugout between missions in Kursk, said he saw Russian troops getting stuck in swamps, marshes and rivers, with the muddy terrain making it difficult to move forward successfully. .

“We’re holding the lines,” Efanov said. “It has become more difficult, but we have the means.”

Recent rare protests by Kursk’s displaced residents have demonstrated that Ukraine’s incursion has caused significant domestic problems for Russia, Efanov said. The latest Russian assault probably has less to do with Trump, he said, and more to do with “Putin’s political ambition to say ‘we can handle it, we can liberate the Kursk region in three days'” , as they planned to occupy Kiev. in three days”.

Photos and videos from more than half a dozen villages north and south of Sudzha, verified by The post Last week shows Russian vehicles faced stiff opposition from the Ukrainians as they tried to advance further into Kursk. In drone video recorded on Wednesday, a Russian MT-LB, a type of armored vehicle, is hit as it drives south past the village of Novoivanovka. The soldiers exit the carrier engulfed in flames as the vehicle continues to advance towards an intersection before being hit again. Two more soldiers abandon the burning vehicle, running for cover in the woods.

Other images show the aftermath of battles and attacks on small convoys of Russian armored vehicles. “The Russians are increasing the tempo of their operations and increasing the size and scope of their armored attacks in a likely attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian defenders and drive Ukrainian troops out of Kursk,” said George Barros, geospatial and Russian analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

Putin’s winning streak

Kiev, while publicly rejecting suggestions to trade land for peace, is also eyeing Trump’s future presidency and wants to keep Kursk on the table as much as Russia wants to push it off.

There are growing doubts, however, why Putin, whose forces are advancing on all fronts, would even consider negotiations that could hinder his original goal of taking control of all of Ukraine.

“Putin probably thinks he’s on a winning streak and why should he negotiate now, so his demands may be extremely high,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO deputy secretary general who is now a distinguished policy fellow at the European Foreign Affairs Council. Relations.

It remains to be seen whether Putin’s statements of maximalist demands are a negotiating tactic or “if he wants to think about it because he has put so much skin in this war that a compromise will not be acceptable to him,” he said he.

In any move toward negotiations, much will depend on “whether Putin wants to take his chips and more or less accept Trump’s proposals, or whether his conclusion is that Trump is going to dump Ukraine, so let’s go,” Gerard Araud said , a former French ambassador to Washington.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research in Philadelphia, said Ukraine likely sees Kursk as potential leverage in future negotiations, but the downside is that the operation has significantly taxed its military.

Ukrainian losses in the eastern Donetsk region accelerated from mid-August to mid-September, analysts said, as experienced units left their positions and focused on the Kursk operation.

Russian forces inside Ukraine have advanced faster in the past three months than at any point in 2022, Lee said.

With winter looming, the foliage is already falling, making camouflage more difficult in a war where drones are already monitoring your every move. Muddy bogs can freeze over soon. Ukraine will have to decide where to prioritize its limited troops and weapons, Lee warned.

“Where do they send reinforcements? Because if you focus on holding Kursk, that could put other parts of the front at greater risk,” he said.