The top Republican on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and a longtime member of the Foreign Relations Committee, he has leveraged his unparalleled knowledge and personal relationships to guide U.S. policy in the region for years.

For decades since the end of the Cold War, Latin America has disappeared from the US foreign policy agenda, even as US adversaries such as Russia, Iran and especially China have made deep inroads. If confirmed, the Florida Republican is likely to end the neglect.

But Rubio’s reputation as a national security hawk, embrace of Trump’s mass migrant deportation plan and knack for polarizing rhetoric is likely to alienate even some US allies in the region unwilling to align with the incoming president’s America First foreign policy .

“Latin American politics is usually left to junior officers,” said Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at Chatham House in London. “But Rubio’s reflexes are firmly focused on the region. He will pay attention, and governments will have to be more cooperative in their broader relationship with the US if they want to get closer.”

Rubio, through a Senate spokeswoman, declined to comment on his foreign policy goals.

But his views on Latin America are well known and stand in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s preference for multilateral diplomacy and dialogue with US critics.

Taking cues from his boss, Rubio’s main focus in the region will likely be Mexico, on trade, drug trafficking and migration. Once a sponsor of bipartisan reforms that gave undocumented migrants a path to citizenship, Rubio turned during Trump’s first administration into a staunch supporter of his calls for increased border security and mass deportation.

Rubio said little about Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office last month. But he was a fierce critic of her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador, who in 2022 defiantly skipped the US-organized Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles for a gathering of Cuban leftist leaders.

Rubio accused López Obrador of capitulating to drug cartels and serving as an “apologist for tyranny” in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. The Mexican president responded by calling Rubio a “racist.”

Despite the snub, the Mexican president was welcomed by President Joe Biden to the White House three weeks later as a “friend” and “partner.”

“That’s not going to happen under Rubio,” Sabatini said. “He keeps a close eye on who follows his policy preferences.”

Rubio, 53, has long had Trump’s ear in Latin America — and he hasn’t hesitated to use that access to push his tough agenda. He has been one of the most vocal critics of Russia and China’s economic, political and military activity in the region, and is expected to punish countries that move closer to America’s geopolitical rivals or those that fail to support Israel.

When Trump canceled what would have been his first presidential visit to Latin America in 2018, Rubio was there to fill the void, attending meetings and photo ops at the Summit of the Americas in Peru with regional leaders from Argentina, Haiti and from other parts.

“There is no one in the US Senate who comes close to having the affinity and deep knowledge of Latin America,” said Carlos Trujillo, Rubio’s close friend and former US ambassador to the Organization of American States. “Not only does he have personal relationships with dozens of officials, some of them for decades, but he has vetted almost every US ambassador stationed in the region. It’s a significant advantage.”

Among those eager to work with Rubio is Argentine President Javier Milei, whose combative style, attacks on institutions and transformation from TV personality to far-right leader have drawn comparisons to Trump.

Another ally is El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, whose crackdown on the gang violence that once drove millions of Salvadoran migrants to the U.S. drew Rubio’s praise.

Rubio has not hesitated to use his power to bully left-wing leaders he sees as harming US national security interests. Even democratically elected moderates have been targeted. Earlier this year, he criticized Chilean President Gabriel Boric, a critic of Israel’s actions in Gaza, for allegedly providing a haven for Hezbollah financiers, calling him “one of the main anti-Israel voices in Latin America.”

In 2023, he named Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former member of the M-19 guerrilla group, a “dangerous” choice to lead a country that has been a longtime partner of the US in the war on drugs.

But Rubio left his biggest mark in Venezuela.

Within weeks of Trump taking office in January 2017, Rubio brought the wife of prominent Venezuelan dissident Leopoldo Lopez to the White House. The Oval Office visit, marked by a photo of a smiling Trump and Rubio accompanying the then-imprisoned activist’s wife, immediately put Venezuela at the top of the US foreign policy agenda, in a break from previous US administrations’ efforts to keep distance from national politics. troubles.

Over the next two years, Trump imposed crushing oil sanctions on Venezuela, accused numerous officials of corruption and began talking about a “military option” to oust President Nicolás Maduro. In 2019, at the height of Rubio’s influence, the US recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate leader.

But the combative stance — popular among South Florida exiles — came to haunt Trump, who later admitted he had overestimated the opposition. By strengthening Maduro’s hand, he opened the way for deeper Russian, Chinese and Iranian interests in the country, while exacerbating a humanitarian crisis that has uprooted millions of people, many migrating to the US.

Michael Shifter, the former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, believes Trump could prove more forgiving of Maduro this time around, even if Rubio heads the State Department and continues his path of hiring and easing sanctions. by the Biden administration.

“Trump could start treating Maduro the way he routinely treats other powerful people around the world and respond a little less to the Cuban-American exile community in Florida,” Shifter said.

Trujillo said Rubio’s reputation for candor will help him negotiate with America’s friends and foes alike, even if he has to temper his sometimes fiery rhetoric.

“He’ll play a different role now, but he’s an exceptional negotiator and I have no doubt he’ll rise to the occasion,” Trujillo said.

With Trump’s selection of another vocal Maduro critic, Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida, as national security adviser, Trujillo said the Venezuelan leader and his authoritarian allies in Cuba and Nicaragua should be concerned.

“There is an opportunity to negotiate, but it will have to be in good faith,” Trujillo said. “If they don’t, there will be consequences.”

Mark Stevenson and Maria Verza in Mexico City and Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires, Argentina contributed to this report