But voters may punish incumbents rather than vote for Republicans, said Rodrigo Dominguez-Villegas, director of research at UCLA’s Latino Institute for Politics and Policy.

“You remember those high prices every day because you buy something every day,” he said. “High inflation was a global phenomenon. It was not exclusive to the United States. But who happened to be in power when it happened? It was Biden and Harris.”

Julián Castro, CEO of the Latino Community Foundation, said Trump’s victory resembles the victories of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George W. Bush in 2000: All three campaigned against a Democratic administration that “faced headwinds he said.

“In 1980, the economy was similar to 2024, at least in people’s minds,” Castro said. “In 2000, after eight years of democratic rule, there was a pent-up demand for change.”

But while they’re frustrated with the economy under the Biden administration, most Latinos who spoke to CalMatters said that doesn’t mean they’ll continue to vote Republican.

“I’ll see how it goes over the (next) four years,” Izaguirre said.

“That’s Not Me”

Trump has vowed to carry out the largest deportation in American history, targeting immigrants in the country illegallywith or without a criminal record.

But Izaguirre, as well as other Latino Trump supporters who spoke to CalMatters, said they do not want undocumented immigrants who have been working in the country for years to be deported. Most of them supported granting legal status to those immigrants — a policy Democrats supported.

Trump’s victory horrified some migrants at the border and undocumented immigrants in California.

“I feel worried because I don’t know what the future holds for us undocumented people working here,” an undocumented immigrant from Delano told CalMatters in Spanish. CalMatters is not naming him out of concern for his safety.

But others said Trump’s mass deportation plan would not reach them.

“He said he would deport people who have a bad record. It’s not me. I don’t have a bad record,” said a Stanislaus County farm worker who spoke to CalMatters on condition of anonymity and who said he came to the country paying a “coyote” — a term for smugglers — 20 years ago.

Huesgew Mendoza likened Trump’s mass deportation to shouting fire in the theater. “It sounds too scary, too important,” she said.

And Aaron Barajas, 46, who voted for Trump this year in his first presidential election, criticized policies that would “tear people away from their families.” arguing that those already settled in the United States should be allowed to obtain legal documents. But he distinguished between those who already live here and those who want to come, arguing that Trump just wants to “bring people into our country, but do it the right way.”

Trump’s rhetoric on immigration has apparently not deterred Latinos from voting for him, contrary to what Democrats assumed following the passage of Prop. 187, Suro said.

“The assumption was that when you’re dealing with threats to the immigrant population and xenophobic rhetoric and crackdowns on immigrants … you’re going to alienate Latinos,” he said. “Trump has very clearly denied that.”

That’s partly because of “scapegoating” by Trump and his allies, who have targeted migrants “physically at the border” for mass deportation, Castro said. “They’ve taken away the recent arrivals from people who have been here a long time, and that’s why I think you hear people expressing confidence that it’s not about them.”

Another factor could be the rapid demographic change among Latinos in California, as more US-born Latino youth become eligible to votesay the experts.

“Overall, fewer Latinos are as close as they were before the immigrant experience,” said Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy. “How close you are to the immigrant experience can directly affect how you view domestic policy (immigration efforts) versus the border (immigration).”

Anti-immigrant sentiment may even be appealing to some Latino voters who are “fueled by a deep desire to assimilate or be seen as belonging to a larger American culture and to differentiate themselves from those who are seen as outsiders.” , Dominguez said. Villegas at UCLA.

A referendum on the Democrats?

While it’s too early to draw firm conclusions from the election, the takeaway for Democrats is that they need to do a better job of reaching Latino voters, something both major parties have done poorly in California, political consultants say.

California Democrats are “clearly in danger of losing long-term Latino support” because of “bad branding” that has lasted more than a decade, Madrid said.

But, he added, “there is very little evidence to suggest that Latinos are becoming more conservative. There’s a lot to suggest they’re becoming more populist.”

Michael Gomez Daly, a senior strategist at the Donors Table of California, said he’s not sure how best to counter the backlash Democrats are facing from voters hurt by inflation, noting that voters may remember Trump with “glasses of rose color”.

Still, he said, Trump has proven “inspiring” among Latino voters, even with his “problematic” rhetoric. Living in the 41st Congressional District, where GOP Rep. Ken Calvert defeated Democrat Will Rollins, Gomez Daly said he saw conservative YouTube ads targeting young men all the time.

“I think Democrats need to recognize the economic situation that a lot of Inland California is facing and talk about those issues and give people hope,” he said. “I think that’s been missing.”

CalMatters’ data reporter Jeremiah Kimelman contributed to this story.