What you need to know: US Navy aircraft carriers face significant vulnerabilities against advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, particularly those developed by China. These systems rely on overwhelming numbers of missiles, hypersonic weapons, and swarms of drones to overwhelm a carrier’s limited defensive capabilities.

-While American carriers like the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Having survived close calls from Houthi attacks, China’s robust production capabilities allow it to field much larger quantities of advanced A2/AD weapons.

-In a conflict near Chinese shores, US carriers could struggle to withstand these attacks due to sheer volume and precision, posing a critical challenge to US naval dominance in the Indo-Pacific.

US aircraft carriers vulnerable to Chinese missile attacks because of math

America is facing perspective of a great power war involving itself and China (possibly other nations). Any conflict with China would be fought closer to Chinese shores, meaning the United States Navy would be the spearhead in any such battle. China’s military understands this.

This is why the Chinese have spent the better part of a decade developing – and implementing –advanced anti-access/area denial systems (A2/AD).that will prevent any attempt by the US Navy to deploy warships near regions China claims as its own in wartime.

Already, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have shown how the US Navy can at least be slowed down by introducing increasingly sophisticated A2/AD-style anti-ship ballistic missile attacks.

While the Americans can probably take out the Houthis, the likelihood that the Americans can take out Chinese A2/AD networks before those systems take out a US carrier in combat is low.

That’s because of a pesky little thing known as mathematics.

Understanding aircraft carrier capabilities

You see, the onboard defensive systems of US aircraft carriers or other surface warfare vessels, while impressive, are not infinite. They can be exhausted over time. These systems are also fallible. They can miss incoming attacks.

Even if they detect such attacks, the reality is that they may not be able to stop incoming attacks, especially if those attacks come in the form of missiles, hypersonic weaponsand swarms of drones.

This is exactly what makes China’s A2/AD networks so lethal. Beijing has combined their advanced manufacturing capabilities with their demands for overwhelming amounts of missiles aimed at any approaching US Navy warships, including aircraft carriers.

Even if the defenses aboard US warships operate at peak levels, they will not be able to stop the overwhelming number of missiles that China will fire at these ships to keep them away from Chinese forces engaged in combat with an American ally ( probably Taiwan).

The attacks?

Earlier this year, the US Navy faced the prospect of one of its vaunted aircraft carriers, the USS. Dwight D. Eisenhower, being destroyed by Houthi A2/AD systems. Fortunately, the iconic carrier was fine.

He survived some of the most tense battles of his life. During the summer, there were rumors that the carrier was badly damaged by the Houthis. That didn’t happen.

What happened was that a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile stick 200 meters from the boat.

Experience and expertise of the author: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weicherta national security of national interest analystis a former congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is forthcoming from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

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