Tropical Depression 19 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara in the Caribbean on Thursday.

In reassuring news for South Florida, WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist James Wieland said the National Hurricane Center is calling for a weaker storm due to more land interaction.

WPTV First Alert meteorologist Chris Sowers said Thursday night that Hurricane Hunter jets flew in and out of the disturbance in the western Caribbean today and found an area of ​​circulation with winds up to 40 mph. Just tropical storm power!

But tropical storm, though. When you look at the satellite, even though the storm has strengthened, it looks like a ragged mess. It is very disorganized and looks more like a broad area of ​​low pressure than anything tropical.

Sara will have a very difficult period of consolidation over the next two days due to her approach to Honduras. There will be some hurdles Sara will have to overcome to even pose a big risk to Florida. The first hurdle is land interaction, not once, but twice (Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula).

The second hurdle, assuming Sara survives the first, is moving across the colder waters of the Gulf of Mexico. You need a water temperature of at least 80 degrees to maintain and harden.

The final obstacle will be strong wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

The WPTV First Alert Weather team is cautiously optimistic about recent patterns.

“The storm will not be as strong or have the chance to become as strong as previous runs of these models over the past few days have suggested,” said WPTV First Alert Weather meteorologist Jennifer Correa.

Sara is still forecast to head into the Gulf of Mexico next week. However, it may be weaker because it may stay on the ground longer once it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wieland said a more southerly and then more westerly track was trending for models late Wednesday, and the NHC continued to change its track in that direction.

The track near or over Honduras, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula will not allow the storm to become terribly strong, and most models do not have it surviving until it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

There could still be some changes, but with the NHC on board, this is a positive step. It’s still a way out, so we’ll remain cautiously optimistic.

However, some of the remaining moisture will be removed from us next Wednesday and Thursday, and there will be a better chance of rain in South Florida during those days.

Also, for those who like cooler weather, the latest long-range models have a big Thanksgiving chill through that weekend.

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