Education has never been a top priority for President-elect Donald Trump, but that doesn’t mean schools — or students — will be immune to Trump’s agenda over the next four years, education experts say.

Trump could cut school funding, reduce civil rights protections and gut the US Department of Education, based on his past statements and visions outlined in Republican platform and Project 2025a conservative manifesto reimagining the federal government.

But students can experience the most devastating effects. Trump has threatened with mass deportations of undocumented residents and crackdowns on LGBTQ rights, which could lead to higher absenteeism, higher rates of bullying, and more general anxiety on school campuses.

“The stress created by the threat of deportation cannot be overstated,” said UCLA education professor John Rogers, who has studied how politics plays out in K-12 education. “It will absolutely impact attendance and absolutely impact the ability of parents to participate in their children’s education.”

Student absenteeism improved somewhat in California since the COVID-19 pandemic, but remains very high – 24.3% last year. During Trump’s first presidency, Latino student attendance and academic performance declined significantly in areas affected by deportation arrests, according to a 2018 Stanford study.

During Trump’s first term, his deportation efforts were somewhat stymied by the courts and disorganization in the White House, Rogers said, but those obstacles may be present this time.

This could leave thousands of children vulnerable to deportation or separation from their parents. More than 115,000 children in California were undocumented in the most recent census count, and nearly half of California children had it at least one immigrant parentthe Public Policy Institute of California reported. Most undocumented residents are from Latin America, but most newer arrivals are from Asia.

The $8 billion threat to California schools

LGBTQ students are also likely to face challenges under Trump’s presidency. Trump has often disparaged “woke” policies that protect the rights of trans students and threatened to withdraw federal funding for states that support those policies. In California, that could mean a loss of about $8 billion, or 7 percent of the total education budget.

But beyond financial issues, anti-LGBTQ language could exacerbate challenges for trans students, Rogers said. Students’ rights to use bathrooms and play on sports teams that align with their gender identity are among the protections Republicans singled out for elimination.

“This election has proven that culturally divisive rhetoric can be an effective way to rally public support,” Rogers said. “Now that Trump has a bully pulpit, I expect we’ll see an amplification of that rhetoric.”

Mike Kirst, former chairman of the State Board of Education, agreed that the threat of deportations could be Trump’s biggest effect on California schools.

“If they succeed in deporting a lot of families, that’s going to be terrible for California schools,” Kirst said. “It keeps me up at night.”

More power to the states?

The other proposals — dismantling the U.S. Department of Education or eliminating the “woke” curriculum, for example — would be complicated and time-consuming to accomplish, he said. Eliminating the Department of Education would require a majority vote in Congress, which would be a difficult hurdle because the department provides many popular programs with bipartisan support, such as special education.

Curriculum is left up to the states and the federal government has no input.

Republican presidents have traditionally sought to minimize the federal government’s role in education, leaving most decisions to the states. If Trump takes that approach, California’s Democratic majority leadership would have some independence from Republican power brokers in Washington, DC, Kirst said.

Regardless, Trump could use the executive orders to roll back Title I, which provides benefits to low-income students, and Title IX, which prohibits gender discrimination. And school choice, school vouchers and promoting charter schools are likely priorities for the next Secretary of Education, though it’s unclear how much impact those policies would have in California.

Trump has also been outspoken in his opposition to teacher unions, saying he wants to eliminate tenure and institute merit pay.

The California Teachers Association, which campaigned heavily for Vice President Kamala Harris, said it was undeterred by Trump’s attacks.

“We stand ready to stand up against any attacks on our students, public education, workers’ rights and our broader communities that may come,” said union president David Goldberg. “We are committed to fighting for the future we all deserve.”

In a rare show of unity, Los Angeles Unified board members and union leaders also vowed to reject any policies that would negatively affect students and families.

“We are united in our commitment to protect, affirm and support everyone in the Los Angeles Unified community,” the groups said in a joint statement. “We will always provide a safe, welcoming and inclusive environment for all students, families and employees.”

State leaders are fighting back

At the state level, elected officials said they would fight Trump’s efforts to intervene in California. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond said Friday that he will ask the governor to top up any funds withheld by the federal government in California and that he will sponsor legislation to protect students.

He also reminded school districts that laws already exist to protect undocumented and LGBTQ students. AB 1955passed this year, prohibits school staff from “outing” students to their families. And Plyler v. Doea 1982 US Supreme Court case prohibits schools from denying students an education based on their immigration status. The state offers a wealth of guidance on how schools can support LGBTQ and immigrant students and their families.

“While others demonize education, we will continue to help California students wherever they are,” Thurmond said.

Attorney General Rob Bonta has vowed to fight Trump’s policies through legal action, just as his predecessor Xavier Becerra did, filing or joining more than 100 lawsuits during Trump’s first term. Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week he would work with the Legislature fund those lawsuits and the rest”Trump proof” California.

In the meantime, students are waiting to see how the policies — and the pushback — play out in the coming months. Maria Davila, a senior at Beaumont High School in Riverside County, said she’s not too worried about how a Trump presidency would affect schools right now. Some of her colleagues are concerned, she said, but she’s confident that student activism and adult leadership will protect young people from the most extreme outcomes.

“In California we have legislative leaders who listen to students and care about young people,” said Davila, a volunteer with a youth advocacy group called GenUp. “I think we will get the support we need. Students can have hope.”