asane

See the path, patterns of what could become Hurricane Sara

Online Niel November 15, 2024

An increasingly strong weather system has been designated over the central Caribbean Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday, becoming the 18th named storm in what has been a brutal hurricane season for Florida and the Southeast.

What started as a tropical storm earlier this week was upgraded to Tropical Depression 19 early Thursday. AccuWeather forecasters say rapid strengthening appears unlikely, but if Sara stays off Nicaragua and Honduras for several days, it could reach hurricane strength. That region could see “potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides,” the National Hurricane Center warned.

Relatively minor wind shear and high water temperatures could help the strengthening process, AccuWeather said. If the storm remains strong as it passes over Central America and southeastern Mexico, Sara could track into the Gulf of Mexico and turn toward Florida next week, AccuWeather said.

“If (the storm) becomes a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season,” AccuWeather Senior Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Hurricanes in November are unusual. Only three hurricanes have previously hit the US or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records.

Sara could add to the damage already caused this year by 11 hurricanes – five of them considered “major” storms after reaching Category 3 strength or higher. Worst of all, Helene and Milton combined for total damages that could approach $100 billion.

As of Thursday morning, the system was located about 225 miles east-southeast of Guanaja, one of the Honduran Bay Islands in the Caribbean Sea. The hurricane center said the depression is moving west, and that movement should continue through Thursday, taking it over the western Caribbean Sea.

“The depression is expected to stall and move off the coast of northern Honduras Friday night and into the weekend,” NHC forecasters said Thursday, with rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated storms of about 30 inches , expected in northern Honduras.

The rest of Honduras, along with Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua could see rainfall totals between 5 and 10 inches, with localized totals around 15 inches, by early next week, according to the hurricane center.

Will Tropical Storm Sara Affect Florida?

Some forecast models say the storm will reach wind speeds of more than 111 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm surge watches to Central America through this weekend. The Gulf Coast has already had five hurricane paths this hurricane season.

“If the current tropical depression intensifies and makes landfall as forecast, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said Thursday morning. “If so, it will surpass the record of three touchdowns in a season set in 2004.”

The storm’s interaction with Central America and other surrounding weather patterns will determine the intensity and final destination of the system. Because the system is still forming, without a well-defined center, the average forecast path uncertainty is higher than normal, the hurricane center said.

Track the track of Tropical Storm Sara

Tropical Storm Sara Spaghetti Patterns

Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a national news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow X @GabeHauari or email them at [email protected].