Americans are fed up with the price of food and many are looking to the President-elect Donald Trump to lower their grocery bills.

Trump often criticized large price increases on the campaign trail for baconcereals, crackers and other items.

“We’re going to take them down,” he told shoppers during a September visit to a grocery store in Pennsylvania.

But the food price inflation that stunned the US — and other parts of the world — in 2021 and 2022 had complicated, hard-to-resolve causes, from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine to bird flu. And many economists believe Trump’s plans, including putting tariffs on imported food and deporting undocumented workers, could actually drive up food prices.

As of October, US prices for food eaten at home rose 28% from 2019, data show published government figures Wednesday. But growth peaked in 2022; between October 2023 and October 2024, food prices rose by 2%, which was lower than the global inflation rate.

However, supermarket sticker shock has rubbed off on the American electorate. About 7 out of 10 voters — including 70 percent of women and 63 percent of men — said they were very concerned about the cost of food and groceries, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters. Only 1 in 10 said they were not too worried or not at all worried.

Trump won decisively among voters who said they were “very” worried. About 6 in 10 voters in that group supported him, while 4 in 10 supported Vice President Kamala Harris, his Democratic rival. Harris won strong majorities among voters who were somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned.

Asked how food prices would drop in September Michigan City HallTrump said the tariffs would help American farmers. Trump asked for a 60% tariff on products made in China and a “universal” tariff of 10% to 20% on all other foreign goods entering the United States. In some speeches, he mentioned even higher percentages.

Trump said American farmers are being “decimated” because the U.S. is allowing so much agricultural produce into the country. As of 2021, the U.S. imported 60 percent of fresh fruit, 38 percent of fresh vegetables — excluding potatoes and mushrooms — and 10 percent of beef, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

“We’re going to have to be a bit like other countries,” he said. “We will not allow that much to come. We will let our farmers go to work.”

But David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said food producers rely on imported goods such as fertilizers, equipment and packaging materials. If they are forced to pay more for those items, they will raise prices, Ortega said.

American farmers could also have trouble selling their goods abroad because other countries could likely respond with retaliatory tariffs, he said. About 20 percent of U.S. agricultural production is exported each year, according to the USDA.

The American Farm Bureau did not respond to a request for comment from The Associated Press. The Consumer Brands Association, which represents big food companies like Coca-Cola and Nestle as well as personal care companies like Procter & Gamble, says many of its members need ingredients that are grown outside the US, such as coffee, bananas and chocolate.

“There is a fundamental disconnect between the stated goal of lowering food prices and tariff policy that only increases those costs,” said Tom Madrecki, the association’s vice president for campaigns and special projects.

Ortega said Trump’s plans to deport people who are in the US illegally it could also increase food prices. There are more than 2 million undocumented workers throughout the U.S. food chain, he said, including about 1 million working on farms, 750,000 working in restaurants and 200,000 in food production.

At the town hall in Michigan, Trump said that lowering energy costs by increasing oil and gas drilling would also lower food prices.

“If you’re making doughnuts, if you’re making cars, whatever you’re doing, energy is a big deal, and we’re going to get it. My ambition is to reduce my energy bill by 50% in 12 months,” he said.

Energy is a relatively small part of the cost of food production and sales. For every dollar spent on food in 2022, just under 4 cents went toward energy costs, according to the USDA. Farm production cost 8 cents, while food processing cost 14 cents.

Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said energy prices are important, but they have already drops significantly during the past year.

“I think it would be difficult for the Trump administration to have a big impact on energy prices in the short term,” Glauber said.

When asked if Trump had plans beyond energy and tariffs to reduce food costs, a spokesman for his transition team did not provide further details.

“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin, giving him the mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver,” Karoline Leavitt said.

Voters are confident that politicians have the power to lower food prices.

According to the Gardner Food and Agricultural Policy Survey, which regularly asks consumers about food and agricultural issues, 74 percent of Republicans believe Republican politicians can lower food prices, while 62 percent of Democrats believe Democrats can lower food prices. The survey, conducted by the University of Illinois and Purdue University, spoke to 1,000 consumers in August.

Jordan Voigt, 34, a single parent of two young children, said she is currently living with her parents near Asheville, North Carolina, because the price of fuel and food has gone up so much.

Voigt said he voted for Trump in part because he believes he is a businessman who can lower prices.

“He doesn’t just say, ‘Oh, this is what it costs, the American people have to accept it.’ I appreciate that,” Voigt said during an election night rally. “He stands up and says, ‘No, the American people are not going to pay for this.’ And he says, “You’re going to have to find a way to do it cheaper.”

But Ortega and other economists say there is little a president can do, especially in the short term, to lower food prices. Sustained price declines usually only occur in steep, prolonged recessions.

“People want food prices to go down to pre-Covid levels and that’s just not going to happen,” he said. “Deflation is not something we want.”

Maria Kalaitzandonakes, an assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois who contributed to the Gardner survey, agrees that the White House has little power to quickly reduce food prices.

But presidents can encourage policies that help tame food price inflation in the longer term, she said, such as increasing competition and investing in infrastructure, agricultural technology and crops that are resistant to pests and extreme weather.

“The drop in food prices is not great,” Kalaitzandonakes said. “What we’d like to think about instead is that your income keeps up with the bills, versus the grocery bill that would go down.”

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AP video journalist Erik Verduzco contributed from Asheville, North Carolina.