U.S. drug overdose deaths are on the decline, putting the country on pace for its first year of fewer than 100,000 overdose deaths since 2020 — a powerful, if bleak, symbolic milestone.

Reported drug deaths fell nearly 17 percent in the 12 months ending in June to 93,087, according to new statistics released this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The toll of the epidemic remains huge, but it is substantially less than the 111,615 lives lost to overdose in the 12 months ending in June 2023. Fentanyl, the powerful illicit opioid that now dominates the US illicit drug supply, has contributed to a great majority.

The CDC’s predictive model for drug deaths estimates that the actual total once states finalize the data could exceed 96,000 in the most recent 12-month period, which would still represent a more than 14 percent drop from the same estimate a year ago before.

While drug overdose deaths have been trending downward for months, some researchers and public health officials have warned that the decline may represent a simple data error, not a real change in the nation’s public health fortunes .

But during a briefing Wednesday, CDC Director Mandy Cohen called the latest drop a sign that the country’s overdose prevention efforts are working.

“It’s a real trend and that’s great,” she said during a panel at the Milken Institute’s Future of Health Summit in Washington. “We throw a lot at it. And we’re starting to really hit home, I think, with some important things.”

In particular, Cohen cited the increased availability of harm reduction resources, such as fentanyl testing strips, as well as efforts to immediately connect victims of nonfatal overdoses to long-term addiction care.

Cohen also pointed to the low number of drug-related deaths in North Carolina, where she served as health secretary. Deaths there fell even more impressively than nationally, falling from 4,422 in the 12-month period ending in June 2023 to 2,440 in the same period a year later.

Cohen later warned, however, that progress could be fleeting if the agency and the federal government in general do not continue to devote resources to fighting the drug epidemic.

“You take your eye off this ball, you take your resources off it, and that can get away from us,” she said.

Helen Branswell contributed reporting.

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