Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine was a criminal act and a strategic blunder by the Kremlin. The ill-fated attack eroded Russia’s global and regional influence and destroyed its great-power image. While a defiant Putin promoted Russia’s economic resilience, the war drained his coffers. Labor shortages, declining foreign assets, and dependence on oil sales indicate a bleak economic future for Moscow. The recent increase in Russian military production has been a worrying trend.

However, its wartime economy was said to be past its prime, and the amount of its military capabilities did not compensate for its lack of advanced technology and lack of adequate military training.

Russia’s economic, demographic and military woes will destroy its global and regional standing. However, a declining revisionist power is no less dangerous than a rising revisionist power. Conversely, a disgruntled and threatened power in decline may be more defiant and risk-averse and may cause serious damage through irregular means.

To secure public support for the Kremlin’s aggressive and costly foreign policy, the Russian government has nurtured a version of a neo-imperial nationalist. ideology which extols the Russian language, traditions, culture and history as written by the Kremlin.

This vision of Russia as a great power was supported by Putin’s promises to claim “Russian historian” lands and reversing NATO’s eastward expansion. Regardless of the outcome of the war, Russia’s geopolitical ambitions will outstrip its economic and military performance. If the war is prolonged, the high price for military production and soldier payments is unsustainable in the long run. If Russia retains temporary control over the annexed Ukrainian territories, it will be required to divert significant resources to rebuild and govern them.

At the same time, Russia will face the imperative of deterring NATO, which has seen a significant increase in allied spending on defense. while nato stated that its military build-up is for defensive purposes and “poses no threat to Russia”, Russia certainly doesn’t see it that way. The Russian leadership sees an existential threat in the widening power differential between Russia and NATO and a limited window of opportunity to achieve its political goals.

Russia is highly unlikely to strike a NATO ally. Its reasons for attacking Ukraine, which Russia considers indispensable to its security, history and culture, are fundamentally different from its interests in the rest of Europe. Russia’s momentum in Ukraine may, however, encourage its foray into other post-Soviet territories, notably Georgia, Moldova and Belarus, to restore a strategic buffer zone.

If not escalating horizontally by expanding the territory of the conflict, the Russian leadership can escalate vertically, relying on nuclear and hybrid means. rattled nuclear swords it has become routine for the Kremlin. If Ukraine’s wary Western partners have delayed providing the necessary capabilities, nuclear capabilities may cease to function in the future. Faced with the challenge of restoring the credibility of its nuclear deterrent, the Kremlin can revive the nuclear arms race and weaken the pillars of nonproliferation.

Through the outfit droneshypersonic missiles and lasers with nuclear and nuclear sharing capabilities TECHNOLOGY with other malign actors, Russia’s nuclear escalation will increase the risk of a nuclear catastrophe.

The most likely scenario for Russia’s virtual escalation will involve intensifying influence operations aimed at eroding Euro-Atlantic solidarity and support for Ukraine. A sharp increase in defense spending in Europe threatens the European welfare state, already weakened by economic recession, demographic changes and an increase in migration.

While many European citizens SHARES their governments’ position on greater investment in national defense, few are willing to foot the bill. Economic problems have contributed to the rise of the extreme right in Europe. Today, fear and disorientation about the future of European countries, compounded by economic anxiety, is the backbone of nationalist and Eurosceptic sentiment that Russia can effectively exploit.

In short, the decline of Russia would not result in greater security and stability in Europe in the near future. A threatened revisionist power will intensify its nuclear and hybrid confrontation with the West as much as it can, exploiting the opportunities presented by the security and economic challenges facing Western countries.

About the author

Dr. Mariya Y. Omelicheva is a professor of strategy at the National War College, National Defense University.

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