The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release US CPI data for October today. For investors around the world, US CPI data is one of the most watched economic indicators.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to contain inflation and held rates at 5.25 and 5.50 percent for 14 months. Now that inflation appears to be under control, the Fed has cut interest rates by 75 basis points. First, in September, the Fed cut the rate by 50 bps and then by 25 bps at the November FOMC meeting.

The Fed has started an interest rate cut campaign as inflation is falling.

US inflation fell from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% in September 2024 — the lowest level since February 2021. However, the surprise for markets last month was the annual rate of core inflation of US consumer prices, which excludes items such as food and energy. Core inflation rose to 3.3% in September, from a three-year low of 3.2% in the previous two months.

US inflation data for October will be released on November 13, 2024 at 8:30 am EST or 7:00 pm IST (IST). The October Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims on Thursday and retail sales data on Friday.

Market experts expect annual core inflation to be steady at 3.3% in October US CPI data, with potential upside risks from pro-growth fiscal policies, tariffs and immigration changes. Markets can be surprised if core inflation or headline inflation shows a significant increase.

Also, US Fed Chairman Powell and FOMC members may be in for a fix now. After trump cardhis victory, there are market voices about the return of inflation. Trump’s policy fee cuts and tariff imposition could prove to be inflationary, thus the Fed’s rate cut campaign is imminent.

Moving into 2025, markets expect the US Fed to go slow in cutting interest rates and may even take a pause before further rate cuts.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up nearly 36%, and the Dow 30 is up 29% over the past 12 months. How the 2024 Santa rally plays out remains to be seen before Trump is sworn in as the 47th president of the United States of America on January 20, 2025.