A year ago, an attack by 100 Israeli warplanes and unmanned drones on 20 sites in Iran, as well as Syria and Iraq, would have created intense alarm among governments around the world.

However, when Israel finally carried out its long-awaited airstrikes on Iran and its allies on Saturday morning, there was international relief that it did not target Iran’s nuclear facilities or its oil industry. Instead, it had focused on military headquarters, air defense systems and a missile manufacturing plant. Iran said two of its soldiers were killed in attacks on three Iranian provinces – Tehran, Ilam and Khuzestan – but that damage was otherwise light.

The Israeli strikes appear to be the end of the current phase of the escalation of the dispute between Israel and Iran, which has the makings of an all-out regional war. Israel said its airstrike had ended and a senior US official was quoted as saying “this should be the end of direct fire between Israel and Iran”. Significantly, Israel has not issued any warning to the Israeli public to take precautions against Iranian missile counterattacks, suggesting that Tel Aviv does not expect this to happen.

Iran, which has been desperate to avoid a full-scale military conflict with a militarily superior Israel backed by the US, is downplaying the Israeli attack. Tehran’s international airport reopened for flights at 9 a.m., schools opened and sporting events were taking place.

The Israeli strike was smaller than some Israeli political leaders had called for three weeks ago, after 180 Iranian ballistic missiles were fired at Israel on October 1 in retaliation for the assassination by Israel. of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallahtogether with senior Iranian military commanders in Beirut.

Possible targets included Iran’s nuclear sites as well as its oil industry, with the threat to the latter briefly sending crude prices higher. President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken argued strongly against this, trying to avoid the outbreak of a regional war in the Middle East coinciding with the November 5 US presidential election. Biden’s claim to have brought order to the world after the chaos of Donald Trump’s last presidency was already looking pretty thin.

It is unclear whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ever intended to attack Iranian nuclear and oil targets at this time, but the fear that he might do so has proved a useful way to deflect international criticism of Israel’s escalating attack on Gaza and Lebanon .

UN human rights chief Volker Turk says the “darkest moment” of the year-long Gaza conflict is unfolding in the northern Gaza Strip, where Israel is waging what it says is a ground offensive against Hamas to prevent its fighters from regrouping . But critics say ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population is ongoing. “As we speak, the Israeli army is subjecting an entire population to bombing, siege and the risk of starvation,” Türk said. He called on world leaders to act, saying states have an obligation under the Geneva Conventions to ensure compliance with international humanitarian law.

Meanwhile, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, said that during the Israeli offensive, the WHO lost contact with the Kamal Adwan hospital in Beit Lahia, which was full of nearly 200 patients amid the offensive in nearby Jabalia.

Israel is now engaged in three wars in the region, directly on the ground as well as in the air in Gaza and Lebanon, and more periodically with Iran. But none of these conflicts show any sign of ending as they infect each other, escalating the level of hatred and violence. Israel inflicted heavy casualties Hamas and Hezbollahkilling their leaders, but this was never likely to take any of them out, while the ferocity of the Israeli assault and heavy civilian casualties allowed them to recruit more fighters.

Read on

The Israeli government can calculate that the US election could see Donald Trump become president-elect. He has already criticized Biden for not encouraging Israel to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities as a priority target. At the same time, Trump’s outbursts are not a solemn commitment to Israel, and during his presidency, Trump has been careful not to provoke Iran to the point of full-scale war.

Iran seeks and generally fails to find a course of military action that deters Israel and the US without giving Israel the opportunity to further escalate the conflict. The ballistic missile strike on Israel on October 1 showed that Israel’s “Iron Dome” defense system is not impenetrable and led to the US sending an advanced anti-missile system manned by 100 US soldiers to Israel, which which may lead to direct US military engagement in Israel. conflict with Iran.

At the same time, Iran hopes not to project weakness by failing to respond effectively to successive Israeli strikes, exposing the Iranian-led “Axis of Resistance” as a paper tiger.

It is a measure of the degree to which war has become the norm in much of the Middle East that foreign governments and the media pay little attention to overnight Israeli airstrikes on Syria and Iraq, as well as Iran. All these conflicts provide points of friction, which at any moment could widen the conflict.

“We are focused on our war objectives in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,” the Israel Defense Forces said in a statement. “It is Iran that continues to push for broader regional escalation.” In reality, Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 and previously killed two high-ranking Iranian generals in an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. But it may be true that for now Israel feels it has enough in Gaza and Lebanon, and if it were to take Iran at the same time, it would want a guarantee of full US military commitment to it. side.