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The federal government’s decision to cut next year’s intake of permanent residents to 395,000 from the previous target of 500,000 for 2025 is a significant U-turn for a government that has made high immigration one of its flagship policies. The roughly 20% reduction, combined with restrictions on foreign workers and international students earlier this year, means a net increase in population will be effectively put on hold for the next two years.

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This dramatic policy reversal reflects an equally dramatic shift in public opinion on immigration. Polls reveal a new consensus against high immigration, attributed to almost every demographic subgroup of Canadian society.

The latest evidence of this trend is national study made and released by Abacus Data in October. Asked about the federal government’s plan to accept 500,000 new permanent residents next year, 72 percent of respondents said that number was too high — a five-point jump since Abacus asked the same question last November.

This perception is strongest among conservative voters, 87% of whom believe the target is excessive, but it is by no means limited to those on the political right. In fact, the Abacus poll found that a majority of voters in all four major parties think the current number is too high: 85% in the Bloc Québécois, 62% in the NDP and 53% among Liberal voters.

As might be expected, younger Canadians are somewhat more in favor of high immigration, but not by much. Clear majorities across all age groups say the current target is too high: 64% of 18-29 year olds, 70% of 30-44 year olds, 75% of 45 year olds and 59 and 76% of those aged 18 to 29. over 60.

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Support for immigration restriction is sometimes combined with animosity towards immigrants and ethnic minorities. The truth is more nuanced. Most foreign-born and non-white Canadians believe the current immigration rate is too high. In an Abacus POLL released last November, 68% of native-born Canadians and 62% of foreign-born Canadians said immigration was too high — not a significant difference. A Law POLL this September

It found that 66% of white respondents, as well as 61% of non-white respondents, believe that too many immigrants are coming to Canada.

This shift in immigration attitudes is a striking departure from the recent past. In 2012, Professor Irene Bloemraad from the University of California he wrote about what she called “Canadian exceptionalism,” describing how Canada was “more open and optimistic about immigration than its counterparts in Europe and the United States.” And we were – at the time.

For example, in a 2015 Environics Institute POLLonly 38% of Canadians said there was too much immigration, while 57% agreed with the flow during that period. Other surveys by Environics show that support for immigration has remained fairly stable at or near that level since 2005.

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But the latest data shows that Canadian exceptionalism in immigration policy is dead, replaced by a new consensus fueled by a widespread sense that Canada’s social systems are being overburdened by population growth. Most respondents to the most recent Abacus survey said the large number of immigrants coming to Canada had a negative impact on housing, access to health care, traffic congestion and social services.

The intuition that rapid population growth can make everyday life difficult is supported by the data. A National Bank report released in January went so far as to suggest that Canada was in a “population trap” — a rare situation most common in developing countries with high fertility rates and population growth so so fast that living standards stagnate.

Although probably unintentional, this shift in public opinion may be one of the most significant legacies of Justin Trudeau’s time in power. A truly broad agreement that stretches across Canadian society to include all major parties, every age group, both native-born and foreign-born, white and non-white Canadians, is a rare thing in our politics.

Politicians of all parties may have to reckon with this new consensus on immigration – however accidental in origin – for some time.

Financial mail

Riley Donovan, freelance journalist, is editor of the Dominion Review.

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