Peace in the Kashmir valley has been shaken by a burst of terror attacks after a period of relative calm. A series of high-profile attacks targeting civilians, non-local laborers and security forces has put the spotlight back on Kashmir. This increase in violence following the recent Assembly elections and the formation of a new government has raised concerns about the motive behind the escalation. The back-to-back attacks highlight the fragile security landscape in Kashmir and Pakistan’s attempt to revive focus on Kashmir after the recent elections and life in the valley has returned to normal.

The problems in Kashmir are twofold — the problem in Kashmir and the problem of Kashmir. The former saw a major positive trend with almost zero conscription and the abrogation of Article 370, integrating the region while isolating the anti-nationals. However, traces of radicalism remain embedded in some elements that could be exploited by those opposed to the current regime. The other is the Kashmir issue, which is essentially a creation of Pakistan’s proxy war as a means of keeping the trio of “Mullahs, military and ministers” relevant to their survival and to divert the crisis that threatens their survival. The Kashmir issue created by Pakistan’s ISI remains formidable and is a state-sponsored proxy war.

The fragility of peace in Kashmir

The situation in Kashmir underscores the complex nature of peace—a concept that goes beyond the mere absence of violence. Effective peacebuilding is a multi-stage process that can be divided into three stages:

Forced peace (negative peace): the initial stage, characterized by the suppression of violence, is fragile and time-sensitive. While the violence may appear under control, underlying tensions remain.

Adequate peace: In this intermediate stage, violence is minimized and the rule of law and public order are restored, creating a conducive environment for political processes to take root.

Lasting peace: This final stage involves not only the elimination of violence, but also the establishment of functioning governance, de-radicalization efforts and peace-building initiatives to prevent future conflicts.

The recent spate of terrorist attacks reveals that Kashmir remains caught between the stages of “adequate peace” and “lasting peace”. The repeal of Article 370 and the targeting of terrorist financing networks have reduced some militant activities. Peaceful elections strengthened the democratic process and people’s choice. However, the recent attacks signal that deep-rooted problems persist and that a sustainable, long-term solution has yet to be fully achieved. “Keeping the peace” is still a challenge.

The key incidents that signal the revival

The resurgence of violence was marked by targeted attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. While some would like these to be isolated incidents, the wise would realize, if not stopped, it could lead to a spiraling escalation. Recent key incidents include:

Killings of non-locals: Attacks on non-local and other laborers in Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Bandipora, Budgam, Ganderbal and other districts aim to disrupt economic stability by creating fear among migrant labor, undermining socio-economic cohesion . This underscores the militants’ strategy to create widespread panic and destabilize everyday life.

Attacks on security forces: Encounters and ambushes on security personnel, such as the attack on an army convoy in Akhnoor, reflect an attempt to challenge the authority of the state and disrupt public confidence in government control. Two soldiers and two army porters were killed in a militant attack on an army vehicle in Gulmarg.

Public attacks in Srinagar: The recent grenade attack in Srinagar’s flea market injured 10 people, marking the return of militancy to previously safe urban centers. The meeting in Srinagar after a gap of two years brought to mind the militancy’s presence in the heart of the valley.

This resurgence serves as a stark reminder of the presence of militancy and the volatility of peace in the region. While the security forces have given a befitting response, including the so-called senior Lashkar-e-Taiba commander being eliminated, it is clear that the momentum is to keep the fire of militancy alive.

The causes behind the renewed militancy

Political uncertainty and power transitions: Militant groups may see political transitions, such as recent elections and the formation of a new government, as opportunities to destabilize the region and test the resolve of the new leadership. Militancy and politicians have been a traditional mix for survival in the valleys of politics. The fissures of the centre-state divide also have their negative consequences.

Pakistan’s proxy war and terrorist support: Pakistan’s role in perpetuating the unrest in Jammu and Kashmir is well documented. Despite Financial Action Task Force (FATF) scrutiny, groups in Pakistan such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and its proxies, including the Resistance Front (TRF), continue to find ways to operate, often exploiting radical cracks. Pakistan’s ongoing proxy war calls for a global response to hold Islamabad accountable for state-sponsored terrorism and destabilization of the region.

There are pressures on Pakistan’s military, the ISI, and its chief, General Asim Munir, from several fronts – political, domestic, the western front with the Taliban and the TTP, and economic crises. To divert attention and gain credibility, the spigot of terrorism in J&K has been turned on again. Building pressure in Jammu seems like a ruse to divert attention and revive militancy in the Valley. This strategy provides an alternative narrative for post-2019 world repeal and peaceful holding of democratic elections and presents the Kashmir cause.

Strategic targeting of non-locals: Targeted attacks on non-local workers aim to disrupt the region’s economy and infrastructure development and discourage migration and investment, thereby weakening efforts at socio-economic integration.

Psychological warfare and fragile peace: Militants’ focus on weak targets and crowded public spaces is a form of psychological warfare, underscoring the fragile nature of peace in Kashmir. The aim is to instill fear in the population and highlight the limited control of the state, perpetuating a cycle of violence and mistrust.

Local radicalization and recruitment: While foreign militants play a major role, local radicalization and toxic ideologies remain challenges. Militants exploit this internal fault line to recruit youth, sustaining a local support base despite heightened security measures.

Reviewing external and internal strategies

The government needs to tackle militancy in Kashmir through a “whole nation” approach, addressing both the external and internal dimensions of the proxy war. Pakistan’s ongoing proxy war, led by its intelligence agency ISI, calls for a more aggressive denial strategy that focuses on punitive deterrence. Regular “lawn mowing” with military operations is insufficient; instead, it needs to focus on striking at the root of militancy and dismantling the infrastructure that supports terror. One or two surgical strokes are not adequate. The need is tohit hard, hit where it hurts and hurt where it resistswith the precision targeting of even a swarm of drones to keep your opponent’s head down.

Complementing the kinetic strategy above is the non-kinetic strategy of the 3M framework—denying militants men, materials, and money by targeting radical ideologies, limiting material support for terrorist networks, and disrupting financial channels. This approach should work alongside counter-terrorism efforts that bridge the gap between citizens and government, promoting goodwill, governance and inclusive growth to support peacebuilding in the region.

Actions needed for sustained peace

Improved Intelligence and Surveillance: Real-time intelligence gathering, especially in urban centers, is critical to preventing attacks. Intelligence networks should optimize technology for tracking communications between militants. Empowering and integrating the efforts of the multitude of security forces and intelligence agencies requires greater attention.

Enhanced border security with advanced surveillance technologies is needed to prevent cross-border infiltration, reducing the external influence of Pakistan-backed militant networks. Search-and-strike mission drones on militant launch pads need to make a bigger effort. The militant leadership and supporters must find dust as soon as possible.

Deny, crush and dismantle. Deny entry, safe havens, resources and space. Worn terrorist leadership and cadre morale. Dismantle links to deny collusion between terrorists, underground workers, surface workers/supporters, political connections and people.

Countering digital propaganda: Militants use social media to radicalize young people. The government should step up counter-narrative strategies, working with digital platforms to reduce extremist content.

Community engagement and building trust: Building trust between local communities and government is vital. Involving civil society and local leaders in peacebuilding efforts and addressing legitimate grievances can encourage cooperation with security forces.

Focus on Governance and Inclusive Growth: “Development, Empowerment and Security” are essential for integration in the Valley. Building societal balance by ensuring equitable development and addressing grievances will reduce militant recruitment and strengthen security measures.

International accountability for Pakistan: Exposing Pakistan’s role in promoting terrorism in Kashmir at global forums is crucial. Holding Pakistan accountable for its destabilizing actions will increase international pressure on Islamabad to curtail militant activities.

Conclusion

The recent increase in militant activities highlights the fragile nature of peace in Kashmir, where efforts are still torn between forced and proper peace. Achieving lasting peace requires a robust, multifaceted approach that combines strong counter-terrorism efforts with community-led initiatives, economic empowerment and governance reforms. Maintaining societal balance is crucial for long-term stability in Jammu and Kashmir. Building trust among local communities and ensuring their active participation in governance is essential. Societal stability acts as a deterrent to the recruitment and support of militants, thereby increasing the effectiveness of security measures.

Centre-state harmony in the spirit of ‘nation above all’ can help establish lasting peace in Jammu and Kashmir, laying the foundation for sustainable stability and growth in the Valley. Meanwhile, our brave security forces will ensure that those participating or supporting the militancy have their meeting with almighty God at the earliest.

The author is the former Director General of the Mechanized Forces. The opinions expressed in the piece above are personal and solely the author’s. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.