FROM HARROP

Donald Trump’s tax and spending plans would add enormous sums to the national debt, with some estimates reaching $15 trillion within a decade. But some of his tax cuts are peculiar in threatening one of America’s most revered programs, Social Security. It would essentially be bankrupt by 2031.

This is not a distant concern. We’re talking like six years from now. And the source of this scary news is the trusted, nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

How would Trump get his legs out from under him? Start with his vow to end the taxation of Social Security benefits. It sounds nice, but these fees help fund the program. Add to that his call to exempt taxes on overtime pay and tips, still helping collect payroll taxes from Social Security.

Seemingly unrelated positions would also accelerate the reduction of scheduled benefits. Trump’s tariffs would unleash inflation, thereby increasing the program’s cost-of-living adjustment. And his immigration plans would eliminate workers who pay into the system.

What many people don’t understand about Social Security is that there is no magical pile of government money to back up its promises. Social Security is largely self-funded by law. (Medicare is another story.) Social Security has to pay for itself. Unlike the Treasury, it is not allowed to borrow.

Here’s how it works: Social Security payroll tax collections go into a trust fund. Any surplus funds remaining after benefits are paid are invested in special US Treasury securities. These are loans to the federal government. Like other bonds, they collect interest and must be repaid.

Foes of Social Security have long complained that general revenues are used to offset these special treasuries. True, but let’s repeat. These securities represent loans to the government, not a new type of spending. The Treasury must repay this debt just as it must support the Treasuries held by China, Japan and investors around the world. (Some on the right claim the ridiculous bad luck that the dough is already gone.)

The point here is that monkeying with the flow of money going into the Social Security program is a way to get public support for it. As president, Trump employed the same stealth tactics in his attempt to kill the Affordable Care Act. Remember how it went repeatedly after funding it.

Strengthening Social Security will be necessary even without Trump’s sabotage. The program is still projected to fall short of its promised payments in 2035. But that can be fixed with some outstanding changes. An obvious step is to raise the income level at which payroll taxes are levied. The maximum is now $168,600.

The Heritage Foundation, the author of Project 2025, has an alternative plan: reducing benefits. It seeks to increase the age, already raised to 67 years, to get full benefits. So much for Americans exhausted from years of hard physical labor.

Heritage also proposes cutting benefits for higher-income retirees. Two problems here. One is that, as noted, benefits for wealthier retirees are already taxed. The other is that reducing the value of the program to better-off participants turns what was intended as an earned benefit into something akin to welfare.

And there’s Heritage’s perennial plan to privatize the program, meaning to expose beneficiaries to the vagaries of the stock market and other investments. Of course, no one is stopping future retirees from putting their money into stocks, crypto or trading books. Social Security is best kept boring and simple.

Without changes to how Social Security is currently funded, benefits would be cut by 23% by 2035. With Trump’s tax plans, benefits would be cut by 33%. There are no two ways about it. Trump threatens the stability of Social Security.

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Froma Harrop can be contacted at [email protected].