Americans voted for change in this week’s presidential election, and in foreign policy, they’re sure to get it. Donald Trump has shown contempt for the priorities and precedents that have traditionally guided Washington’s approach to the world. He talks more about America’s autocratic adversaries than about its democratic allies. He derides “globalism” as a liberal conspiracy against the American people. And he treats international agreements as little more than trash.

At stake is not just the survival of Ukraine and the fate of Gaza, but the entire international system that forms the foundation of American global power. This system is built on the strength of the US military, but more than that, it is rooted in relationships and ideals – nations with shared values ​​coming together under US leadership to deter authoritarian aggression and uphold democracy. The resulting world order may be severely flawed and error-prone, but it has generally preserved global stability since the end of World War II.

Despite its strength, this system is fragile. It is backed by an American promise to honor its commitments and ensure collective defense. Trump threatens this promise. His plan to impose high tariffs on all imports could disrupt the liberal economic order on which many American factories and farmers (and Trump’s billionaire friends) rely. His apparent willingness to sacrifice Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a misguided quest for peace will strain the Atlantic alliance and undermine security in Europe. By signing that it will not defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, it could undermine trust in the United States throughout Asia and make a regional war more likely.

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The American global order may be ending. This would not be a matter of “American decline.” The US economy will likely remain the largest and most important in the world for the foreseeable future. But if Washington breaks its promises, or even if its allies and enemies believe it has or will — or if it fails to uphold democracy and the rule of law at home — the pillars of the American international system will crumble, and the United States will suffer an immeasurable loss of global influence and prestige.

The risk of this happening has been building for some time. George W. Bush’s unilateralist war on terror has strained the international system. So did Trump’s disputes with NATO and other close allies during his first term. But world leaders may write off Washington’s wavering as temporary departures from what has been a relatively consistent approach to foreign policy over the decades. They understand the fickle nature of American politics. In four years, another election will be held and a new administration could restore Washington’s usual priorities.

With Trump’s re-election, however, the aberration has become the new normal. The American people have told the world that they no longer want to support an American-led world order. They elected US policymakers who promise to focus on the home front instead of the problems of ungrateful allies. Perhaps they concluded that the United States had spent too many lives and too much money on unnecessary foreign adventures like Vietnam and Afghanistan. And perhaps America will now reassess its priorities in light of new threats, especially from China, and the potential burden of meeting them.

The problem is, if the United States isn’t going to rule the world, some other country will, and a number of people are already applying for that job. One is Putin’s Russia. Another is Xi Jinping’s China.

China began asserting its global leadership more aggressively during Trump’s first term and has worked increasingly to undermine the US system since then — strengthening China’s ties to Russia and other authoritarian states, building a coalition to counterbalancing the West and promoting illiberal principles for a reformation. world order. Trump seems to think he can keep China under control with his personal charm alone. Asked in a recent interview whether he would intervene militarily if Xi blocked Taiwan, he replied: “I shouldn’t, because he respects me.”

That’s narcissism, not discouragement. More likely, Putin and Xi will take advantage of Trump’s disinterest. Once calm in Ukraine, Putin may well rebuild his military with the help of China, North Korea and Iran, and then move on to his next victim – say, Georgia or Poland. Xi could be emboldened to invade Taiwan or at least trigger a crisis over the island to extract concessions from a US president who has already hinted he won’t fight.

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The result will not just be a multipolar world. It is inevitable, whatever Washington does. It will be a global order in which autocrats prey on smaller states that can no longer count on the support of the world’s superpower, regional rivalries erupt into conflict, economic nationalism undermines global trade, and new nuclear threats emerge. This world will not be safe for American democracy or prosperity.

The fate of the world order and US global power may seem of little consequence to Americans struggling to pay their bills. But a world hostile to US interests will constrain American companies, affect international energy markets and endanger jobs and economic growth. Americans could face bigger wars requiring bigger sacrifices (as in 1941).

Perhaps Trump will surprise everyone by thinking about his legacy and choosing not to follow the course he has signaled. But that seems unlikely. His message about his foreign policy priorities has been too consistent for too long. Over the next four years, Americans will have to decide whether they still want the United States to be a great power and, if so, what kind of great power they want it to be. Americans wanted change. The world can pay the price.