A significant in-state Big 12 rivalry begins this Saturday when conference title contender No. 9 BYU takes on Utah in the Holy War. Let’s check out the latest predictions for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Utah was an undefeated Big 12 title contender a month ago, but has since lost four straight and is just 1-4 in a league title picture it projected to dominate.

BYU is one of five teams remaining undefeated in college football, going 8-0 and taking sole possession of first place in the Big 12 after Iowa State’s loss.

What do the analytics models suggest for when the Cougars and Utes meet in this Big 12 matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and Utah match up in this Week 11 football game.

As expected, the models favor the Cougars over the Utes, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts BYU to beat Utah by a projected score from 25 to 23 and win the game with one estimated margin of 1.7 points in process.

The model gives the Cougars a 54 percent chance of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, SP+ is 262-244-7 against the spread for a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

BYU is a favorite by 2.5 points against Utah, according to updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 40.5 points for the game (Over -105, Under -115).

And he set the money line odds for BYU at -140 and for Utah at +116 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Cougars to cover the tight end against the Utes, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the game.

BYU receives 72 percent of betting to win the game by at least one field goal and cover the spread to remain undefeated and in sole possession of first place in the Big 12 standings.

Other 28 percent Utah’s betting draft will either hand BYU its first loss in a major upset or keep the margin under a field goal in the event of a loss.

BYU enters the weekend averaging 13.7 points more than opponents when counting all the points and margins of his victories this season.

Utah skates on the narrowest of rims with an average 0.1 points better against opponents in 2024.

Those averages have changed marginally over the past three games as the Cougars have played 12.7 points better than the opponents and utists were 5.7 points worse over that time.

At home this season, Utah has done well 2.7 points worse than opponents, while BYU averaged 10.5 points better than the competition when playing on the road in 2024.

BYU and Utah match up well when it comes to points per game: On offense, the Cougars average .531 points per gameranking 15th in the FBS while the Utes allow .293 points per gamewhich ranks 19th nationally.

But the Utes are only 120th in the country with .270 points per game in offense, while the Cougars rank 16th in the FBS in surrenders .287 points per game this year.

Most other analytical models have the Cougars against the Utes in this rivalry game.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

BYU came out ahead in the majority 59.3 percent of the latest computer simulations of the purely win-lose matchup.

That leaves Utah as a credible threat to pull off the upset by winning the rest 40.7 percent of sense.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

BYU is designed to be 3.5 points better than Utah on the same field in both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest forecast.

BYU ranks first among Big 12 teams with a 49.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Cougars a total win projection 10.9 games this season.

Nationally, the index ranks BYU 12th out of 134 FBS teams in playoff probability, and the Cougars emerged as the projected No. 4 seed in the CFP’s first division this week.

Once an apparent lock to make the playoffs back during preseason speculation, the Utes are now struggling to reach a bowl game.

FPI projects to win Utah 5.4 games in ’24, with a 41.9 percent chance to become eligible for the bowl.

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 20:15 Mountain
TV: ESPN Network

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Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

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