The Cyclones simply cannot afford a loss if they want to stay in contention for the Big 12 title

AMES — Iowa State (7-1, 4-1) saw its margin of error drop to close to zero after last week’s loss to Texas Tech.

And while the Cyclones weren’t widely considered to be a top contender for the Big 12 title before the season, they’ve established themselves as one through eight games.

ISU has made it clear that they intend to win the conference crown, but if they don’t, the hopes of that happening are almost certainly gone. The Jayhawks (2-6, 1-4) have the top talent to derail ISU’s hopes, but to do so, they’ll need to reverse a season-long script marked by missed opportunities.

The Cyclones simply cannot afford a loss if they want to stay in contention for a league title, which means they will need to be very focused and less prone to untimely mistakes.

Here are three keys to victory for Iowa State.

1. Give up poor beginnings

Cyclones no. 17 have fallen behind 7-0 in each of their last four games, and that’s a trend that must end if they hope to win the regular season and virtually secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game.

Opposing teams have excelled when they follow their scripted offensive plays early on, then ISU’s defense adjusts and generally shuts down as the game wears on. The Cyclones offense also got off to a slow start in recent weeks and settled for two first-half field goals in last week’s loss to Texas Tech before quarterback Rocco Becht finally found receiver Jayden Higgins for a touchdown on four seconds from the break.

Kansas has lost five games by a combined 19 points, so a fast start and an early double-digit lead could force the doubt to creep in early and allow ISU to — as Baylor coach Dave Aranda described it — “ choke” the opponent.

2. Find a third receiver

Wide receiver Carson Brown has been a revelation for a Cyclones offense that relies heavily on top receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.

They were targeted 25 times on Becht’s 36 carries last Saturday while productive tight end Ben Brahmer was sidelined with a foot injury. Brown was only targeted once — but he turned that into a 44-yard touchdown catch that seemingly saved the game until Texas Tech scored late.

Noel and Higgins combined for 1,428 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Brahmer, who is doubtful to return this week, is the only other ISU passer with more than 100 receiving yards this season.

Your tight ends Gabe Burkle and Tyler Moore have come on late, but the Cyclones need to find Brown more often — or figure out ways to use transfers Eli Green and/or Isaiah Alston. Green hasn’t caught a pass since the West Virginia game. Alston hasn’t caught a pass all season.

3. Spy on Jalon Daniels

Statistically speaking, Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels is suffering the worst season of his long and injury-riddled career.

But the skilful player will likely be at his best on Saturday against the Cyclones – and that has been abundantly clear of late. Daniels has thrown five touchdown passes to one interception in the past three games and has also rushed for a touchdown in each of those contests.

He’s a threat to break a big run at any time, so it’s good news for ISU that linebacker Zach Lovett could be back from injury. The Cyclones defense struggled against highly mobile quarterbacks — especially in the UCF win — and Daniels may be the most talented dual-threat quarterback they’ll face all season.

Iowa State vs Kansas Prediction

There’s a good reason Las Vegas originally listed ISU as a 3.5-point favorite — and that number dropped to 2.5 at various sportsbooks as we hit the middle of the week. ISU’s offense should be able to thrive and the defense should do just enough to get a narrow win in a more or less neutral venue at Arrowhead Stadium.

Iowa State 31, Kansas 27

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