South Florida Money Line

Best Odds (+140 at BetMGM)

Two weeks ago, people were discussing the possibility that The Marines and Army of the Black Knights could face off twice in a row with a possible College Football Playoff spot on the line. Now, the Midshipmen are just hoping for a shot at that follow-up as they are currently on the outside looking in at the AAC Championship game.

The 51-14 loss to Notre Dame was nothing to be ashamed of. It is Notre Dame, after all, and the recruiting stars are pretty high on one side of that matchup. But following up with a loss to a lowly Rice raises real concerns on both sides of the ball.

It’s not just that they lost, it’s how they lost that worries me about the Middies. Rice ranks 75th defensively in EPA/rush, yet held Navy to just 140 yards on 40 attempts. The Owls also sacked Blake Horvath twice while allowing just 10 completions on 21 carries, with the Navy QB throwing zero touchdowns and three picks in his last two outings.

The South Florida Bulls the defense has holes, but most of them are in the passing game. The Bulls defense ranks 15th in EPA/rush and 10th in third/fourth down success. Opponents are averaging more than 7.5 yards to go on third down, and that could be catastrophic for a Navy offense ranked 72nd in 3rd down success and 30th in average yardage of 3rd down.

South Florida is tied for second most tackles for loss in AAC play, two ahead of Rice, and has recorded 23 of them over the last two games. The Bulls are also allowing a 35.38% conversion rate on third down in conference play.

Offensively, the Bulls have found some spark with Bryce Archie as he has thrown for over 200 yards and two touchdowns in their last two wins. But USF also got big chunks in the ground game, and that’s where Navy will struggle.

The Middies rank 89th in EPA/defensive rush and have allowed 26 runs of 10+ yards in five conference games. USF has switched to running the ball heavily in the last two games, with 40+ carries in both contests and ran for 319 yards and four touchdowns against FAU.

USF salvaged its season to get back to 4-4, and a win here would be huge for bowl eligibility. Look for the Bulls defense to put Navy behind the chains enough to disrupt their potent running attack, while their improving offense puts up enough points to pull off the upset.

North Texas Money Line

Best Odds: (+165 at BetMGM)

At first glance, this one looks pretty easy for Army. The Black Knights lead the nation in rushing with an average of 340 yards per game and should punish a North Texas Mean Green defense giving up more than 177 yards per contest. And defensively, Army is allowing less than 200 yards passing per game. But that’s a misleading statistic, fueled by his easy schedule.

Five of the seven FBS teams Army has beaten so far rank outside the Top 100 in EPA/dropback, with only Temple (69) and ECU (87) surpassing that form. North Texas is ranked 18th nationally and has a passing attack that will put serious pressure on the Black Knight defense and be able to put up points in a hurry.

Chandler Morris has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns on the year with four games of over 400 yards passing. Army has been prone to giving up explosive passing plays despite its solid underlying stats, with 22 percent of opponent’s passing plays going for more than 10 yards. North Texas has the third-most such plays this season and gains at least 10 yards on 32.5 percent of its pass attempts.

While not gaining many yards per throw, Army’s opponents are completing better than 64 percent of their pass attempts. North Texas has allowed just nine sacks on the season — an area where the Black Knights have struggled this year as well — so Morris will have plenty of time to operate.

Additionally, North Texas’ running game could cause some problems for Army. While the Black Knights rank fifth nationally in allowing fewer than three yards per rush, they have a run rate of just 13 percent and have allowed an average of 3.4 rushing yards per rush this season.

I don’t trust the Mean Green defense at all, and Army should put up a lot of yards and points. That said, North Texas has had two weeks to prepare for the triple-option offense. The offense averages 4.4 points per opportunity and will maintain hope regardless of the score or situation.

I expect a shootout here and it might just take a stop for the Mean Green to take the lead. If this game comes down to a road in the final minutes, I have faith in the home team that they will be able to get some of the plays they need to get the win.

LSU Money Line

Best Odds (+125 at BetMGM)

There’s something magical about Death Valley at night, and Brian Kelly is 13-0 under the lights at home as LSU Tigers head coach. With the Tigers needing a win to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive, I expect another win on Saturday.

The Alabama Crimson Tide they have some great defensive backs, but that hasn’t stopped teams from hitting big plays through the air. The Tide has allowed SEC opponents to complete 12 throws of 30-plus yards in five conference games while letting SEC quarterbacks complete 60.6 percent of their throws.

They relied on turnovers to bail them out, leading the SEC with nine interceptions in conference play. And while Garrett Nussmeier has had some issues with turnovers of late — he’s thrown at least two interceptions in three of his last four games — they’ve mostly been the result of pressure.

When kept clean this season, Nussmeier has thrown 19 touchdowns and four interceptions on 256 attempts. Compare that to one touchdown and five picks in 77 attempts while feeling the heat, and you’ll see how important it is that LSU’s line protects him.

The Tide haven’t had the best pass rush this season, with a front-seven rushing rate under 10 percent and a sack rate that puts them in the middle of the pack. Against Georgia, the Tide had just eight rushes on 52 dropbacks as Carson Beck threw for 439 yards.

Even with LSU’s struggles running the football, the offense posted the 10th best late down success rate and converted 45.16 percent on third downs against SEC foes. Keeping runs alive is how Vanderbilt shut out the Tide, converting 12-of-18 while Tennessee converted on six-of-14 opportunities.

LSU’s defense wasn’t great, but it was better in SEC play. The Tigers will need to be stronger against the run, but they have limited big passing plays and have 18 sacks in just four SEC contests. If LSU forces Alabama into obvious passing situations, it will be problematic for an Alabama line that gives up a sack rate ranked 93rd nationally.

If this game was played in Tuscaloosa, I’d be rooting for the Tide to get the win. But LSU’s defense will get a big boost from the atmosphere, and Alabama will remain winless on the road in the SEC.