The day before the elections a report in Axios — somewhat overshadowed by the vote — argued that the Biden administration is making a final push for a scaled-down defense deal with Saudi Arabia that would include new security ties without sealing long-sought normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

While it’s unclear whether such an effort is still in play following the re-election of former President Donald Trump, the prospect of such a deal is being met with a chilly reception from some leaders on Capitol Hill.

A more comprehensive deal also appears difficult to achieve in the few months left in the Biden administration, especially with no resolution to the Middle East war, although some lawmakers continue to believe that reaching a normalization deal in that time remains critical .

Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), a co-chairman of the Abraham Accords Caucus, rejected the reported effort to reach a more limited deal with Saudi Arabia.

“The Biden administration’s push for a security deal with Saudi Arabia to the exclusion of Israel overlooks the critical role of our strongest ally in the region,” Lankford said in a statement to Jewish Insider. “Lasting peace requires active efforts to integrate Israel into regional partnerships. A true path to peace must prioritize relations between Israel and its neighbors.”

Representative Brad Schneider (D-IL), a co-chair of the House Abraham Accords Caucus, told JI before the election that his focus and priority is on building on the Abraham Accords and finding a path to normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Pressed on whether a bilateral deal between the US and Saudi Arabia could garner congressional support, he said his preference was for a broader regional agreement.

“Without seeing it — and we’ve seen the headlines — we’ll cross that bridge when they get there,” Schneider said. “My hope is that we can reach a comprehensive or broader agreement that will bring security and peace to all people in the region.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who has been one of the most aggressive advocates of a regional normalization deal in the Senate, argued that it must happen before the end of the Biden administration to receive enough Democratic support in the Senate to ratifies elements of the agreement with Saudi Arabia that require congressional approval.

He told JI a week before the election that he still believes a deal is possible and must happen in the few months left before Inauguration Day.

“There is no substitute for that,” Graham said, arguing that the deal unlocks the only viable path to stability in Gaza and the West Bank through Arab leadership. “All interests (of regional players) are aligned.”

Despite the short time left, Graham said he believed there was an “increasing likelihood” that a deal would happen before the end of the year “because the alternatives are becoming more real, which is a perpetual conflict.” .

Pressed on the short amount of time left for the Senate to consider and ratify such a deal, Graham replied that “all it takes is a few days to say, ‘Do you want to change the Middle East or not?'”

“If Saudi Arabia and Israel can find a plan for the Palestinians that Israel can live with, that gives the Palestinians dignity and sovereignty and Israel’s security, and Saudi Arabia is willing to make sure that Hamas doesn’t come back and rebuild Gaza and change education system, I think you’re going to get 67 votes,” Graham said.

At least others seem to agree: Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL) posted on X Thursday: “Now is the time to get Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords.”

A considerable contingent of Democratic senators had, pre-oct. 7, expressed skepticism about the reported terms of the Saudi deal, raising concerns about strengthening military ties with Saudi Arabia and demanding significant Israeli guarantees regarding the Palestinians.

Aaron White, a spokesman for Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT), one of the leaders of the effort, said in a statement: “Senator Welch supports normalization between Israel and its neighbors and strongly believes that any such agreements must ensure a viable Palestinian state.”

William Wechsler, senior director of the N7 Initiative at the Atlantic Council, noted to JI that “lame periods are not often marked by diplomatic initiatives.”

“Consider me skeptical,” Weschler said, of progress on either a major or more limited deal in the final months of President Joe Biden’s term. “There are a large number of dominoes that have to fall for the circumstances to be right for that, and some of those dominoes involve war.”

He added that regional governments — many of which have “secretly, or not so secretly, welcomed the return of the Trump administration” — may be “reluctant to award a diplomatic victory to the outgoing Biden administration if they believe there is any risk that let it roll over with it. the incoming Trump administration”.

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JI that a limited Saudi security deal could be a “modest win that the administration would like to achieve” in the remaining time, but the Saudis “have to wonders if they (would) get more from Trump,” and there are questions “whether the Saudis want to hand the Biden team a win,” given Biden’s sometimes rocky relationship with Riyadh.

Both Saudi Arabia and Israel may also be interested in finding ways to curry favor with the Trump team rather than the outgoing Biden administration, he said.

But Schanzer also said he didn’t think there was “anything particularly controversial” domestically — outside of “certain segments of the Democratic Party” — about a limited deal with Saudi Arabia, which could make it a major non-U.S. ally. -NATO and provide another advanced level. armament.

Schanzer added that with recent Israeli victories in the war against Hamas and Hezbollah and the possibility of the war ending in the coming weeks, “full normalization appears to be back on the table.”

He said Trump’s re-election could facilitate a return to more enthusiastic negotiations with Saudi Arabia and argued that both Saudi Arabia and Israel have a higher level of confidence in the Trump team.

Weschler said getting congressional support — if needed for a more limited deal — would be difficult in the lame duck.

The administration may be able to finalize some elements of a more limited pact without congressional approval, Wechsler said, but key Saudi demands would require Senate ratification, which could be difficult if not accompanied by normalization with Israel.

He said there was “obviously some reality to (Graham’s) logic” about reaching a deal before the end of Biden’s term, but warned that the other parties may not be ready to move with the same urgency . Wechsler said the U.S. has often appeared more eager for a deal than Israel and Saudi Arabia themselves, and that a deal has become more difficult since Oct. 7.

Weschler acknowledged that it would be more difficult to muster enough Democratic votes under a Trump presidency to ratify the normalization deal, but said some Democrats might support it on its terms, “so I don’t think it’s complete rejected from the beginning”.

Schanzer said it was “feasible” to finalize and ratify a normalization deal before the end of the year, but “it would require significant political will (and) concessions to Republicans who probably feel they don’t have to compromise.”

It also depends on whether the Saudis “want to make a deal.”

Under the Trump administration, Schanzer said he could envision a scenario where enough Democrats would vote to ratify a normalization deal. “The devil will be in the details. If it’s a good deal for Saudi Arabia, a good deal for Israel, then I can imagine a yes vote from the Democrats if there are “concessions there for the Democrats, whatever they are,” Schanzer said.

He also suggested that after Tuesday’s election blowout, Democrats may be engaging in a “reassessment” of their “strong anti-Israel” and “anti-Saudi sentiment.”

“I think this election could have been kind of a wake-up call about certain policies, and digging against a regional peace agreement doesn’t seem like the wisest of policies to me,” Schanzer said.