Israeli soldiers patrol along the Israel-Gaza border area in October. Most American Jews have said they support an offensive arms embargo against Israel until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to an immediate ceasefire in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages. Photo by Getty Images

Of Arno Rosenfeld
November 7, 2024

More than a year after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, most American Jews broadly support Israel but sharply criticize its leadership and prosecution of the Gaza war, according to an Election Day exit poll released Thursday. even though they expressed their depth. concerns about anti-Semitism linked to anti-war protests.

Among the notable findings: 62 percent of Jewish voters would support the United States withholding arms shipments to Israel until Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to an American proposal for an immediate cease-fire. Approvals for Netanyahu himself hit an all-time low, with 63% of those polled saying they had an unfavorable view of him, up from 59% in 2022, and 66% saying they would like to see US sanctions against far-right cabinet ministers his.

The finding on arms retention is notable because the imposition of any conditions on US aid to Israel has long been a red line for leading Jewish groups, including the poll’s sponsor, J Street. Anti-war protesters have called for a complete arms embargo for the past year; The survey tested a narrower notion, where defensive weapons like the Iron Dome missile defense system would still be supplied, but offensive ones like the 2,000-pound bombs used in the Gaza war would not.

Asked about such a partial embargo, 35% said they would strongly support it, and another 26% said they were somewhat in favor of the idea, while 38% were opposed.

The questions were asked of 800 Jewish voters across the country as part of a biennial election poll conducted by GBAO Strategies on behalf of J Street, the liberal pro-Israel lobby. It found that Vice President Kamala Harris won 71 percent of the Jewish vote and former President Donald Trump 26 percent.

While support for Harris has fallen from the 77 percent of Jews who supported President Joe Biden four years ago, according to previous GBAO polls, she has maintained the same share of the community vote as former Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

“Despite this traumatic year, it hasn’t affected political beliefs and values,” said Jim Gerstein, who conducted the poll. “We’re back to a benchmark of Democratic performance.”

One big change has been Trump’s support among the Orthodox, who Gerstein said make up about 9 percent of the Jewish electorate: 86 percent voted for him this year, the poll showed, compared to 59 percent in 2020.

The survey also found that 87 percent of American Jews believed that “opposing Israel’s right to exist” was anti-Semitic — although 90 percent said it was possible to be critical of the Israeli government while remaining “pro-Israel.”

The survey also found that the “future of democracy” and abortion were top issues for Jews. Israel and anti-Semitism ranked lower, but above health care, guns and taxes.

On anti-Semitism, 94 percent of Jewish voters said praising the October 7 Hamas terror attack on Israel was anti-Semitic, but 71 percent said it was not anti-Semitic to criticize Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza and 59 percent said that he is not anti-semitic. to accuse Israel of war crimes.

The poll also included a question about AIPAC’s political endorsements, which included several pro-Israel Republicans who voted against certifying the 2020 election. More than 71 percent of Jewish voters said they disapproved, providing ammunition for J Street’s ongoing feud with the pro-Israel juggernaut and underscoring what Jeremy Ben-Ami, the group’s president, said was proof that American Jews care a lot more. unless a politician supports Israel.

Ben-Ami said the poll results showed widespread opposition to right-wing policies in both the US and Israel. “Both of these movements are a fundamental threat to democracy, to our freedom, to our rights,” he told a news conference on Thursday.

Fixing the Jewish vote

As for the breakdown of the Jewish vote for Harris and Trump, the GBAO poll landed between the results that had been circulating since Tuesday of two other major exit polls. One commissioned by a consortium of national news outlets polled voters in 10 swing states and found that 78 percent of Jewish voters support Harris, while a Fox News analysis of the Associated Press VoteCast poll found 66 percent support for Harris among the Jews.

Both polls were broad surveys of Americans who freed Jews as well as other religious and racial groups. Neither was intended to specifically study American Jews and therefore did not follow best practices to ensure that the sample of Jews accurately reflects what is known about the demographics of the community from other studies.

The GBAO poll compared responses from 800 self-identified Jewish voters by denomination and other factors that tend to influence politics, likely making it a more reliable poll. Gerstein noted that while working for Democratic campaigns, he consistently touted the quality of his Jewish exit poll, even when it showed his candidates performing worse among Jews than other exit polls.

A the fourth exit poll conducted by the Honan Strategy Group of Pennsylvania on behalf of two Orthodox Jewish groups claimed to have found that Harris won only 49% of the Jewish vote in that state and Trump 42%. Maury Litwack, who organized the poll, did not respond to a request for the full results or methodology Thursday, making it impossible to assess quality.

GBAO also did a Pennsylvania poll of 400 Jewish voters and found that 75% of them are voting for Harris compared to 23% for Trump. Fox News exit poll analysis said 74 percent of Jews in the Keystone State support Harris.