A bombshell matchup is set for this weekend when No. 3 Georgia hits the road in another critical test against then-No. 16, Ole Miss. Let’s see the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia emerged as the no. 3 in the first College Football Playoff ranking of the season and is the presumptive SEC champion, but has a small margin of error to remain in the top 12 with another loss.

Ole Miss has less room to maneuver, sitting outside the top 12 coming into this weekend, so it must play its best football and hope for outside help to get into playoff contention.

What do the analytics models suggest as the Bulldogs and Rebels meet in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Ole Miss match up in this Week 11 football matchup.

So far, the models are taking the Rebels home over the Bulldogs in this SEC clash.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 28 to 26 and will win the game with one estimated margin of 2.3 points.

The model gives the Rebels a narrow look 56% chance of victory right over the Bulldogs.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, SP+ is 262-244-7 against the spread for a 51.8 winning percentage after going 23-23-2 (50%) last weekend.

Georgia is a favorite by 2.5 points against Ole Miss, according to updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And he set the rates for the money line for Georgia at -142 and for Ole Miss at +118 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

A slight majority of punters are taking the Bulldogs over the Rebels, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

Georgia receives 55 percent between bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

Other 45 percent the Ole Miss betting draft will either lose the game by less than a field goal or win outright in an upset at home.

Ole Miss ranks 6th nationally in average 23 points better than opponents so far this season, while Georgia was 11.7 points better than the competition on average.

But these teams have played closer games over the past three weeks, as has Ole Miss 13.7 points better than the opposition average and Georgia 13 points better than its competition over that time horizon.

Georgia did well 10.8 points better when playing on the road this season, while Ole Miss has dominated at home, averaging 24.3 points better than opponents from Oxford.

Ole Miss is strong on defense, ranking 3rd in the FBS in surrenders .192 points per game average, while Georgia ranks 35th with .447 points per game.

Both teams are tied on the other side as Georgia is 15th in allowing .286 points per game this season, while Ole Miss is 19th with .520 points per game to the crime.

Other analytical models also suggest that the Rebels will beat the Bulldogs in this SEC matchup.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss comes out right ahead in the majority 53.9 percent of the latest computer game simulations.

That leaves Ole Miss as the presumptive winner the rest of the way 46.1 percent of sense.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a close one.

Ole Miss is designed to be 1.4 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Georgia is first among SEC teams with a 83.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Bulldogs a total win projection 10.2 games this season.

Ole Miss is fifth in the conference with a 61.1 percent shooting to make the 12-team playoffs.

And the index shows that the rebels will win 9.3 games this season.

When: Saturday, November 9
Time: 3:30 PM Eastern
TV: ABC Network

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Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

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