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Oil prices are lower; China’s stimulus, Trump’s repercussions in victory focus By Investing.com
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Oil prices are lower; China’s stimulus, Trump’s repercussions in victory focus By Investing.com

Investing.com — Oil prices fell on Thursday, extending the previous session’s weakness on a stronger dollar and lower crude imports from China.

At 08:45 ET (13:45 GMT), it was down 0.2 percent at $74.82 a barrel, while it was down 0.4 percent at $71.46 a barrel.

Crude oil prices pared some losses in the previous session after Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory lifted the dollar to a four-month high, weighing on oil markets.

China’s NPC meeting followed fiscal cues

China’s National People’s Congress is in the middle of a four-day meeting this week and is expected to outline plans for more fiscal spending in the coming months to boost economic growth.

The world’s biggest oil importer is facing a prolonged growth slowdown and is expected to outline a sharp increase in fiscal spending. Beijing has announced a series of aggressive stimulus measures over the past month, with the NPC meeting set to provide more insight on the fiscal front.

Data released earlier this week showed imports from China fell 2.3% from a year earlier in October, more than expectations for a 1.5% drop and reversing course from a 0.3% rise in the previous month.

JPMorgan analysts said in a recent note that a Trump victory could prompt Beijing to roll out even more fiscal stimulus, given that Trump has promised to impose heavy trade tariffs on the country.

Markets are digesting Trump’s victory

Oil prices initially fell on Wednesday after Trump won the 2024 presidential election. That initial weakness was driven by concerns that US oil production will rise further under Trump, increasing a global supply glut.

But prices pared some losses amid bets that Trump will take a tough stance on Iran and Venezuela, likely imposing more sanctions on the two and cutting off some global oil supplies.

Trump is also expected to implement more expansionary policies, which bode well for economic growth and could support US demand in the coming years.

“The impact of Trump’s presidency is still uncertain given several opposing forces potentially at play,” analysts at ING said in a note.

“USD strength is likely to provide headwinds not just to oil, but to the broader commodity complex as we witnessed yesterday. Additionally, a Trump administration could see an increase in oil and gas leasing on federal land, which has fallen significantly under Biden. , US supply growth will remain largely price dependent. On the other hand, a Trump presidency also opens the door to a more aggressive US stance against Iran, which could mean tougher enforcement of sanctions on just over 1 million bpd of oil supply in danger”.

Hurricane Rafael, Fed meeting in focus

Beyond US politics, markets took negative cues from data showing stronger-than-expected growth.

Traders were also watching for any supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico from Hurricane Rafael, which is expected to pass through the oil-rich region this week.

“According to the Office of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, just over 304,000 bpd of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico was shut down due to the hurricane,” ING said.

A is also expected to close on Thursday and the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)