SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Rafael continues to withdraw from Cuba. It remains well organized with good flow with relatively low shear at this time. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Hurricane Warning and Tropical Storm Warnings for the Lower and Middle Keys are discontinued. The tropical storm warning for Dry Tortuga remains, and tropical storm force winds are expected on that island this morning.

The storm will begin to move west today with little chance of additional strengthening. On this track, Rafael will continue to move away from the Suncoast and its impacts will remain minimal. Rafael’s main effects will be strong winds and the Small Craft Advisory. These impacts will diminish through the evening, with the main lingering effects being cloud cover and a slight chance of rain. Strong winds will continue into the weekend, prompting a current statement that is in effect until November 8 at 7:00 p.m. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until tomorrow morning.

The best chance for showers or thunderstorms will be between about 1:00 PM and 6:00 PM After that, drier air will begin to move in and the rain chances will decrease quickly. The drier air will lower the dew point, making the air more comfortable after midnight. Winds will remain strong through the afternoon with gusts between 20 and a half seconds. Winds will ease slightly by evening, with gusts in the upper twenties or 20s.

Friday will be sunny and warm with lower humidity and drier air, eliminating the chance of rain and keeping us dry through the weekend. Temperatures will remain around five degrees above average until Sunday.

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