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Trump’s return to power fueled by support from working-class Hispanic voters
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Trump’s return to power fueled by support from working-class Hispanic voters

Donald Trump has reshaped the US. the electorate once again this year, picking up support among Hispanic voters, young people and Americans without college degrees — and winning more votes across most of the country as he claimed the presidency.

Following the Republican’s populist campaign, in which he promised to protect workers from global economic competition and offered a wide range of tax-cut proposals, Trump’s growing strength among working-class voters and non-white Americans has helped increase his vote share almost everywhere.

The biggest increase may have been the 14 percentage point swing in Trump’s share of Hispanic voters, according to a poll by Edison Research. About 46 percent of self-identified Hispanic voters chose Trump, compared to 32 percent in the 2020 election, when Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

Hispanics have heavily favored Democrats for decades, but Trump’s share this year was the highest for a Republican presidential exit poll candidate since the 1970s and only higher than the 44 share % won by Republican George W. Bush in 2004, according to data compiled by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank.

In counties where more than 20 percent of voting-age Americans were Hispanic, Trump’s margin over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris improved by 13 points over his 2020 performance against Biden.

“Young Hispanics don’t have the same muscle memory as their grandparents who voted for Democrats for 50 years,” said Giancarlo Sopo, a Republican media strategist who worked on Hispanic outreach for Trump’s 2020 campaign.

This time, Trump won 55% of Hispanic men, up 19 points from the 36% share he won four years earlier, while he drew support from 38% of Hispanic women, in 8 points increase compared to 2020.

Trump has made opposition to immigration a cornerstone of his political career, pledging to carry out mass deportations of people living in the US illegally. Many Hispanic voters supported Trump’s hardline positions, according to the Edison Research poll. About a quarter of Hispanic respondents said most undocumented immigrants in the country should be deported to their countries of origin, compared with 40 percent of voters overall in the poll.

Economic concerns

Hispanic Americans lean more working class than the country’s white majority, with higher shares of Hispanics without college degrees, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

Hispanics also tend to be younger than the American average, meaning many have had less time to build wealth and have also been more exposed to the economic problems of recent years, including high inflation and rising mortgage interest rates. Trump won 43% of voters aged 18-29 – 7 points more than in 2020.

About two-thirds of voters thought the U.S. economy was in bad shape, compared to about half of voters in 2020. About 46 percent said their family’s financial situation was worse than four years ago, compared to 20 percent who said same thing in 2020.

“Republicans have consistently beaten Democrats in connecting with voters on the economy,” said Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the nonpartisan UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative. “This was a referendum on the economy, and that was consistently the number one, two and three issues for Hispanic voters.”

In Arizona, a state Biden won in 2020, Mexican-born Arturo Laguna became a U.S. citizen earlier this year and cast his first U.S. presidential vote for Trump, citing the Republican’s conservatism and acceptance of restrictions on abortion access .

“The three most important things are family values, being pro-life and religion,” said Laguna, a 28-year-old corporate manager. “I don’t feel like Kamala represents those values.”

Across the country, in places where nearly all the votes were counted — about 2,200 counties nationwide — Trump’s margin was 5 points higher than it was in 2020.

That broad increase — a surge in the Republican tide — is due in part to Trump’s gains among voters without a college degree, a massive class of voters that cuts across racial and ethnic lines and made up just over half of the electorate on Tuesday.

About 56% of voters without degrees chose Trump, up 6 points from the Republican’s 2020 exit poll share. Harris won 55% of voters with degrees, unchanged from Biden’s share in 2020, when wealthy suburbs helped power the Democratic victory.

Trump’s gains are based on major shifts in the electorate since his 2016 presidential triumph, when he far outpaced Republican incumbents among white working-class voters. He largely maintained his dominance with the group this year, winning 66 percent of the vote, down 1 point from 2020, according to the Edison Research poll.

Among non-college-educated non-whites, however, Trump’s vote share increased by 8 points.

While Trump has gained ground in the vote count across most of the country, some of his biggest gains have been in and around major cities, areas that have been critical to past Democratic victories.

Trump flipped Nassau County — just east of New York City on Long Island — winning about 52 percent of the vote there.

And in the 25 large urban counties where nearly all votes were counted Wednesday morning, Harris won 60 percent of the vote, down about 5 percentage points from Biden’s 2020 performance and the smallest share for a Democrat in those counties for at least some time. 2012.

Harris won 53% of the female vote, while Trump won 55% of the male vote, with Trump performing slightly better with both groups compared to 2020.