Because Donald Trump was projected to win the White House, according to Edison Research, the US dollar and the stock market are seen as winners, but a Republican presidency could hurt bonds, emerging markets, clean energy and sustainable investments.

Here’s how:

COINS

A Trump presidency is seen as strengthening the US dollar, with investors expecting his policies to lead to higher inflation and growth than would have been the case under Democrat Kamala Harris. This will mean that the Federal Reserve should keep rates high to prevent the economy from overheating, which in turn would be bullish for the dollar.

At the same time, Trump’s plans to impose trade tariffs, force European allies to pay more for defense and suspicion of multilateral institutions are likely to depress growth elsewhere in the world, boosting the dollar’s allure. Citi analysts expect the dollar to rise 3% after a Trump victory.

Analysts expect the euro to fall sharply, possibly below the key $1 level, if tariffs and domestic tax cuts follow.

China’s yuan is also expected to fall further, as in 2018-2020, when it depreciated rapidly.

Higher dollar yields will also mean a return to carry trades, with currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc already sold off heavily in the run-up to the election.

However, the Swiss franc will find support, analysts say, thanks to the country’s higher-value exports, which shield it from tariffs, and the currency’s tendency to outperform during periods of higher inflation.

With the Trump administration expected to take a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation, bitcoin is another potential winner. The world’s largest cryptocurrency hit an all-time high on Wednesday.

STOCKS

Trump’s promise of less regulation and lower taxes for big corporations, more oil production and a tough immigration policy point to stronger growth and inflation seen as positive for stocks. Sectors such as banking, technology, defense and fossil fuels are likely to benefit.

His plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15 percent from 21 percent would boost S&P 500 earnings by about 4 percent, Goldman Sachs estimates.

Even so, it’s still unclear how much of Trump’s tax cut plan will make it to Congress. At the same time, its protectionist policies and tough stance on China would raise costs, reduce profitability and hurt multinational companies.

Outside the US, a strong dollar, rising US interest rates and trade tensions will mean that defensive sectors will fare better and multinational companies with exposure to US markets will suffer.

Sectors exposed to tariff changes, such as semiconductors, automotive and clean energy, are likely to be volatile. Investors dealing with the outcome of the election exited Japanese stocks, where automakers dominate, and European electric vehicle and chip stocks.

Barclays warned of possible “single-digit” percentage declines in European earnings if trade conflicts flare up again. Europe’s defense sector is likely to have a mixed result after Trump said he would end the war in Ukraine but also said European allies must spend more on defense.

OBLIGATIONS

Investors have been increasingly alarmed by the scale of US government debt and the fiscal deficits that add to it, with concerns that it will push up borrowing costs or Treasury yields.

Trump’s spending plans could add $7.5 trillion to deficits over 10 years, according to one estimate, far higher than what Harris had proposed. Treasury yields rose nearly 50 basis points in October as markets priced in a higher probability of a Trump victory.

Inflationary pressures from Trump’s policies would leave the Fed less room to cut rates, which will keep Treasury yields high.

A Trump victory will also suppress growth in Europe and Asia as tariffs and other policies put pressure on those economies. More pressure on the euro, yen, Swiss franc and other currencies and higher inflation will reduce the room for central banks there to cut rates as needed. Analysts expect global yields to rise.

commodities

Trump will aim to maximize U.S. oil and gas drilling by expanding federal leasing and rolling back environmental regulations where possible — a policy agenda that all but guarantees the country will remain the world’s largest oil producer. That robust supply could help keep U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures, which have fallen about 4 percent so far this year, relatively low.

On the other hand, it is likely to increase the enforcement of oil sanctions on Iran, something that could reduce some of the world’s crude supply. He also said he would fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to unprecedented levels, which could add support to prices as the government taps into the markets.

Soybeans are also in view. US traders scrambled to deliver a record crop ahead of the election amid fears of renewed trade tensions with China, the world’s biggest soybean importer. China, which has not fully complied with a 2020 agreement with the Trump administration to buy more U.S. agricultural products, has purchased fewer U.S. soybeans this marketing year and almost no corn. Soybean prices are down 25% from a year ago.

EMERGING MARKETS

Even before the election, concerns about Trump’s policies weighed on emerging economies. In addition to the tariffs on China, Trump said he would slap a tariff of up to 200 percent on Mexican vehicle imports. The Mexican peso could weaken beyond 21 to the dollar, levels not seen in more than two years, analysts say.

Another potential headwind for emerging markets: Trump’s vice-presidential nominee, JD Vance, has proposed a 10 percent tax on remittances, important to many Latin American economies.

South Africa’s rand, Brazilian real and stock markets in those countries are vulnerable if there are tariff hikes, as are chipmakers in Taiwan, South Korea and others that make for Chinese technology firms.

A sell-off in Treasuries and a rise in the dollar will also remove money from emerging markets and force tighter monetary policies in many countries.

Emerging economies with domestic growth and reform stories, such as India or South Africa, could benefit and become a haven in otherwise volatile global environments. Copper and lithium producer Chile could be largely spared due to the less substitutable nature of its exports.

SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENTS

A Trump victory would allow him to fulfill his campaign promises to roll back environmental regulations that limit oil and gas drilling and coal mining, which could boost stocks in those sectors.

Trump also said he would “revoke all unspent funds” under the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden-Harris administration’s signature climate law, which includes hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric vehicles, solar and wind power .

But steps that could effectively reduce stocks in those sectors could require action by Congress, and several Republican lawmakers have expressed support for at least part of it.

Trump also promised to fire Gary Gensler as chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This would set back the ability of US sustainable funds to pressure companies for policy changes and potentially make these funds less attractive. Funds have faced net drawdowns since 2022 as high energy prices have hurt relative returns.