Donald Trump will return to the White Housebecoming the first former president to win back the office after losing it to Grover Cleveland in 1892.

Around 5:30 a.m., the Associated Press called Wisconsin for Trump, giving him a project of 277 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’s 224, with 37 votes still undecided. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. Trump appears poised to win a majority of the remaining votes, which would result in a larger victory than the 304 electoral college votes he received in 2016.

How did this happen?

There will be years of debate over whether President Joe Biden should have run, whether he waited too long to drop out, and the overall effectiveness of Democratic messaging. But that analysis is for another day. (Though it’s clear that abortion hasn’t become as critical an issue for Democrats as they had hoped.)

Looking at the early voting results released this morning, a simple picture emerges: Trump successfully represented his voters, while Harris did not.

This was not a race for the mythical undecided and independent voters in the political center. If it had, both parties would have focused on convincing these voters through targeted ads and door-knocking. That didn’t happen.

Since the re-election of Barack Obama in 2012, presidential elections have not been won by appealing to the center, but by mobilizing the bases of each party and forming new coalitions of voters.

The 2024 election began much like 2020, with almost every American already having a fixed opinion of Trump. For Harris, the goal was to recreate Biden’s path in 2020 by winning over union members in swing states, college-educated suburban women and disaffected Republicans. She also aimed to strengthen the Democratic standing among younger voters and people of color.

It was a strategy that left no room for error. Remember, Biden only won in 2020.

Trump, on the other hand, faced a more difficult task: he had to change the electorate. Simply repeating his 2020 strategy would not have been enough to win. He needed to attract new voters, especially those who might like him but were unlikely to vote.

Polls have reflected this trend all year. Trump has consistently performed better among registered voters than among those who reported they were very likely to vote. If there was any significant debate in political circles, it was about whether Trump’s various get-out-the-vote operations could successfully mobilize these new voters.

How did this play out?

A CNN analysis showed that Harris failed to better Biden’s 2020 performance in a single county statewide. Even in New England, traditional Democratic strongholds like Maine and Rhode Island shifted to the right, with Rhode Island moving nearly 8 points to the Republicans.

Perhaps most surprising was Trump’s success not only in white, rural areas, his traditional base, but also in reaching black and Latino voters, especially men. Many of these voters favored his handling of the economy and his positions on cultural issues. Trump made the biggest gains among black and Latino voters of any Republican in recent history. For example, Harris won the Latino vote by just 53 percent to 45 percent over Trump, compared to Biden’s 30-point lead with this group in 2020.

These changes had knock-on effects for Republicans in other races. The Senate has returned to Republican control, while the House remains contested. Republicans are optimistic they will retain control, although the final results could take several days to be confirmed.

Interestingly, Trump could take power next year under complicated circumstances. His party could have full control of Washington, and Trump would escape federal prosecution while reshaping the federal bureaucracy and implementing his conservative agenda. But he starts the first day as a lame duck, whose days are numbered and whose strength is slowly waning each day. The future of the MAGA movement after him is as murky as the future for Harris.

Questions about the Massachusetts ballot

mass voters approved auditing the Legislature and discontinuing the use of MCAS scores as a high school graduation requirement while fighting to leave ride-share drivers unionize it stayed tight. But they rejected the legalization of psychedelics and raising the minimum wage for tipped workers. Here are the city-by-city results. (The Boston Globe)

Elsewhere

US Senator Elizabeth Warren defeated John Deaton, securing his third US Senate term. (The Boston Globe)

In Rhode Island, it appears that U.S. Reps. Seth Magaziner and Gabe Amo and U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, all will win re-election. (The Boston Globe)

In New Hampshire, Republican Kelly Ayotte, who campaigned on promises to prevent her state from becoming more like Massachusetts, will become the 83rd governor of the Granite State after her opponent, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, lost Tuesday night. (The Boston Globe)

Voters in six states — approved measures to protect or expand abortion rightsbut an attempt to restore protections for the procedure failed in Florida. Three other states with abortion on the ballot are awaiting results. (BBC)

Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, both Democrats, made history after winning their US Senate races: They will be the first two black women to serve together in the Senate at the same time. (KSDK TV)

Andy Kim, who represents New Jersey’s 3rd District in the US House of Representatives, will be the first Korean American to be elected to the US Senate. (AsAmNews)

Sarah McBride, a Delaware state senator, will win her state’s at-large seat in the US House, making her the the first transgender person to serve in Congress. (CNN)

OUTER SPACE The four American astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) were able to vote in the US election because NASA realized how to send encrypted ballots from space to a county clerk’s office. Now you just have to send the two stranded astronauts home. (Quartz and CNet)

IN BED Did you stay up late last night? Sleepless nights worrying about the election? We are right there with you. Good news: You really can catch up on sleep. It is not ideal; lack of sleep can really affect your health. But sleeping more on your days off can help. (Axios)

GEORGIA The Russians wreaked havoc in yesterday’s election, sending anonymous bomb threats to polling stations in several states, including several dozen in Georgia, which were forced to close briefly but were allowed to remain open later. The FBI said the Russians were also responsible for other tricks, including a fake video of a Haitian immigrant claiming to have voted multiple times in Georgia. The FBI said none of the threats were credible. (USA Today)

ON DEADLINE The major television networks have their own “election bureaus” that decide when to call a race for one candidate or another. But most newspapers rely on an organization that has proven its mettle for decades: The Associated Press. Here’s how I do it. (AP)

IN THE OFFICE It’s the day after the election and you know that the people you supervise at work have different political views. You can feel the tension. What to do? Name the elephant in the room. (Just don’t call him Dumbo.) (Harvard Business Review)

MICHIGAN Even though the Great Lakes state voted Democratic for president for years until Trump in 2016, it really wasn’t as blue as it looked: It was actually red at the state level — governor, House and Senate — for years. That is now overturned and the reasons why are fascinating. Or maybe just mildly interesting. (Vox video on YouTube)

GEORGIA Republicans challenged about 2,000 absentee ballots in Democratic cities here, but a Trump-appointed judge blocked their efforts yesterday and criticized the plaintiffs in the process. “There are no supporting facts. There is no law to support it,” argued federal judge Stan Baker. “That parade of horrors is factually and legally incorrect.” (Newsweek)

CAPITAL HILL As voters watch the presidential and congressional elections, another big question looms: Who will replace Mitch McConnell as GOP Senate leader? Senate Republicans will hold a secret ballot on November 13. (The Boston Globe)

ON THE ROAD Figuring out when an older person should stop driving has become a third way of aging, as many people keep their licenses much longer than most did a generation ago. Meanwhile, older drivers have more accidents. (The Boston Globe)

IN THE BANK You’ll be able to save an extra $500 in your 401(k) next year, but if you’re 60, you can put away even more in retirement money tax-free. But only about 14% of workers max out their 401(k) contributions.. (CNN)

IN YOUR SUFFERING You might have been one of those people who bought a bigger TV during the pandemic and splurged on a huge 65-inch model. Amateurs. XXL TVs measuring 97 inches and above are flying off the shelves this Christmas as prices have dropped. They are still expensive, costing between $1,700 and $3,000. But if seeing Ryan Seacrest’s nose hairs is your thing, it’s a small price to pay. (CNN)

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James Pindell can be reached at [email protected]. Follow L @jamespindell and on Instagram @jameswpindell.