close
close

Association-anemone

Bite-sized brilliance in every update

    • are you awake Here’s everything you need to know about election night
    asane

    are you awake Here’s everything you need to know about election night

    Online Niel Posted on

    • Author, James FitzGerald
    • Role, BBC News

    After all the drama of a campaign like no other, US election day is here. It was an extremely close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and more twists and turns are guaranteed after the polls close on November 5.

    So settle in and buckle up. Our election night guide includes the key things to look out for as we wait for a result – however long that wait turns out to be. The times below are given first in GMT and then in US Eastern Time (EST).

    First look at exit poll data

    After months of guessing what the American public will decide, at 17:00 EST (22:00 GMT) we got an early look at their thoughts and motivations, with early exit poll data suggesting that democracy and the economy are the most important issues. for voters.

    American exit polls work differently from UK exit polls. Rather than predicting the outcome, they provide insight into people’s priorities and opinions — and later, how different demographic groups voted. Pollsters combine election day interviews with telephone surveys both statewide and nationally seven cradle states.

    In most states, the outcome of the presidential vote is almost certain, but voting in swing states is hard to predict and can lean Republican (red) or Democratic (blue). Both campaigns heavily targeted voters in these battlegrounds who could hold the keys to the White House.

    East Coast signs close, countdown begins

    By 00:00 GMT (19:00 EST) polls will close Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and virginbut these are not swing states, so the results will be predictable.

    But voting will also close in the first swing state of the night, Georgia. Victory for either candidate could provide a strong indication of where the election could go.

    Georgia was only won by Joe Biden last time. It has also become the subject of false claims by Trump, who is accused of criminally conspiring to overturn his 2020 defeat.

    The candidate with more votes than any other in Georgia will get a crucial 16 out of 538 votes in the electoral college system.

    Harris and Trump want a majority of 270 electoral college votes to win the White House. That matters more than the “popular vote” or the support they get at the national level.

    Soon after, at 00:30 GMT (19:30 EST), polls close in three other states, including North Carolina.

    Outside of the presidential race, there has been enormous interest in the state gubernatorial race, which pits state Attorney General Josh Stein against Trump-endorsed candidate Mark Robinson, whose campaign has been rocked by scandals.

    Polls close at the same time Ohiowhere Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, is a senator. Meanwhile, the two campaigns will gather at their headquarters for the evening — which we know will be in West Palm Beach, Floridain Trump’s case. Harris is expected to spend part of the night at Howard University in Washington DCwhere she was once a student.

    At this point, some states may begin to be “called out” by US media outlets. They use models to project, or call, which way a state voted, even before the total vote count has been completed.

    This happens when they believe a candidate has gained a lead that cannot be overcome by their opponent. In some tightly contested swing states, this could take a long time.

    The models used by the media are based on a variety of data, such as exit polls and actual votes counted by officials. The BBC obtains this data from a firm called Edison Research.

    A flurry, including the crucial Pennsylvania

    At 01:00 GMT (20:00 EST), more polls close – including in critical situations Pennsylvaniathe top prize of swing states 2024 with 19 electoral votes. This is where Trump survived an attempt on his life when a gunman opened fire at his rally, killing one person.

    It is also a state that is part of the Rust Belt – areas once dominated by manufacturing that have seen industrial decline in recent decades. Here, a handful of counties, like Erie and Northampton, could end up making a difference.

    Currently at 01:30 GMT (20:30 EST), we expect to get more exit poll data – including a national breakdown of the vote by age, race and college level. This is provisional data that is refined over a period of several weeks.

    All eyes on the swing states

    Polls close at 02:00 GMT (21:00 EST) in the more closely watched battleground states, including Michigan and Wisconsin. Michigan is home to the largest concentration of Arab-Americans in the US, for many of whom the Israel-Gaza war is an important electoral issue. The state was won by Biden last time, as was Wisconsin, which this year hosted the Republican National Convention.

    Polls have also closed Arizona – a focal point for the nation’s immigration debate – followed by Nevada, where both parties tried to woo working-class voters by vowing to end tip taxes an hour later.

    Remaining polls close – will it be a waiting game?

    At 04:00 GMT (23:00 EST), polls close in the remaining states that border each other in the continental US. The last two states close a little later – Hawaii at 05:00 GMT (00:00 EST) and Alaska at 06:00 GMT on Wednesday (01:00 EST).

    Traditionally, it was shortly after voting closed at 11pm EST California that the race as a whole was called for one candidate or another. Not much later followed a concession speech from the defeated candidate.

    But few observers expect a quick resolution this year, with some suggesting it could take days, rather than hours, to know the winner.

    In recent elections, an increased number of postal votes tended to delay the process. Tens of millions of people also voted early before polling day. And different states have different rules about when they start calculating them.

    Early accounts can also be misleading. A candidate who takes an early lead in in-person votes may end up being overtaken when mail-in votes and other types of ballots are added later. This happened in Michigan in 2020. Trump took an early lead in the in-person vote, but was later overtaken by Biden.

    Other races – and big votes for abortion

    Despite so much emphasis on the presidency, voters will also elect new members of the Congresswhich passes laws and initiates spending plans. All 435 seats in House of Representatives are candidates for the elections. In Senatewhere members vote for key government appointments, 34 seats are contested.

    Republicans currently control the House, while Democrats hold the Senate.

    These two chambers can act as a check on the White House’s plans if the controlling party in either chamber disagrees with the president.

    Voters in montana, ArizonaMissouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Nevadanew york and South Dakota They will also be asked how their state should regulate abortion, which has become one of the most emotive issues of the election.

    still awake

    If you’re still awake, well done for making it this far, but there’s a chance we’ll be waiting a little longer to find out who won. The tighter the race, the more vote counting will have to take place before a winner can be projected in any given seat — and there’s always the possibility of recounts. A full nationwide count usually takes days or weeks.

    To give you a flavor – in 2020, the result in Pennsylvania and Nevada was designed four days after election day, and in Arizonaafter more than a week by most outlets.

    A very close contest could feel like a repeat of 2020. Or 2024 could be comparable to the 2000 presidential race between George W Bush and Al Gore, which was contested and ultimately settled in the US Supreme Court, Bush being certified as a winner.

    The direct vote predicted by polls and pundits in 2024 could leave the door open to legal challenges from both sides.

    That would make the night just the beginning of the drama — rather than the final word on the 2024 election.

    North America Correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his twice-weekly newsletter, US Election Unspun. UK readers can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.

    Online Niel
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like