Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at a press conference in Tel Aviv on October 28, 2023. Photo by Getty Images

Michael Koplow
November 5, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant it’s not a surprise. Given the bad blood between them and Netanyahu’s desire to stamp out any dissent from the ranks of his ruling coalition, it was inevitable. But the moment is notable for a few reasons.

First, it comes on the heels of Gallant yesterday approving a round of 7,000 new draft orders for Haredi recruits. This after 3,000 draft notices for Haredim were issued earlier this year and only 230 of those who received notices reported to the Israel Defense Forces induction center.

Haredim drafting has been the major issue in Israel this week, in light of Haredi threats to vote against the budget unless the coalition passes a bill that addresses their draft-evasion priorities. Today, Netanyahu withdrew a Knesset bill that would have guaranteed kindergarten subsidies for Haredi teams because he could not command a majority. Gallant was the leading opponent of the bill in the coalition. Haredim pulling out of the coalition is Netanyahu’s nightmare because it will cost him his majority, and that possibility grew today when the prime minister failed to wrangle his coalition to pass the incredibly unpopular bill, which is opposed by almost all non- Haredi. Israeli. Netanyahu hopes Gallant’s firing clears a big hurdle.

Second, the other big news this week is the arrest of five people, including a Netanyahu spokesman, for stealing classified information and leaking it to reporters to stop support for a hostage deal. There is also an investigation into whether Netanyahu’s aides altered the minutes of subsequent war cabinet meetings to deflect blame for thwarting a hostage deal. Anything that changes the conversation and draws attention away from the leak investigation and Netanyahu’s inner circle is good from his perspective, and firing Gallant will certainly do that, at least temporarily. Netanyahu excels at flooding the area to distract from bad news.

Third, when Netanyahu tried to fire Gallant the first time during the judicial review, he drove hundreds of thousands of Israelis into the streets. This time, Netanyahu is betting it won’t be. The Israelis are exhausted. The war in Lebanon has broad support and the protests have died down. If ever there was a time to risk firing Gallant, this is it. Netanyahu is betting that there will be a loud but short outcry that he will face and then he can move in with a defense minister he can control.

Ultimately, timing on election day is not the primary motivator, but it is a factor. Gallant is the Biden administration’s favorite and most trusted interlocutor. There will be many angry people in the White House and the Pentagon over this move, so Netanyahu chose to do it on a day when the US is at its most distracted.

The staggering recklessness of this act should not be underestimated. The US is working with Israel to resolve the conflict in Lebanon and prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel’s October 26 attacks. Israel is also about a week away from a deadline set by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for Israel to improve its Gaza aid process or risk a legally mandated aid cut. So, at a time when US assistance is most needed and when a real blowout between the US and Israel is at its most likely, Netanyahu throws the person into the vortex of managing both issues, as well as the person the US likes the most .

And even leaving all that aside, Netanyahu decides to fire his defense minister when there is a war in Gaza and Lebanon and perhaps an imminent war with Iran – and the West Bank on the precipice of greater violence. It’s election day in America, but it’s never been clearer how much Israel needs its own elections.